Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CLE
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
68
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.262 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.345 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.296
0.313
0.331
0.347
wOBA
0.360
0.376
0.393
0.411
0.427
ISO
0.137
0.157
0.180
0.202
0.222
K%
11.4%
13.4%
15.7%
18.0%
20.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
59
+17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.9
85
Hard-hit%44.8%
75
+22 vs proj
xBA0.328
58
xSLG0.509
49
xwOBA0.345
82
+40 vs proj
BB%10.2%
68
+26 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%13.6%
91
+30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
51
Arm Strength90.6 · RF
27
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-0.2 · RF
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · RF
72
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
32
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.1% · rebadged research
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.244 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
202 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.094 |
| Sample | 353 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.138 to 0.278 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.166 | 0.034 to 0.238 | +/- 0.102 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 0.8% to 6.3% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.9% | 18.9% to 46.4% | +/- 13.7% |
| K% | 20.5% | 7.6% to 28.9% | +/- 10.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 2.8% to 11.9% | +/- 4.6% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.166 to 0.355 | +/- 0.095 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.011 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 1.1% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.012 |
| K% | 0.7% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |