Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Simpson, Chandler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.259 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.288 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.266
0.276
0.288
0.300
0.311
wOBA
0.309
0.327
0.347
0.367
0.385
ISO
0.050
0.065
0.082
0.098
0.114
K%
7.9%
9.1%
10.6%
12.0%
13.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.7%
12
Barrel%0.0%
1
Bat speed61.8
1
Exit velocity81.7
4
Hard-hit%16.3%
1
K%10.2%
97
xBA0.284
18
xSLG0.326
2
xwOBA0.259
11
-44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · LF
12
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
80
Outs Above Avg7.0 · LF
99
Range Runs5.7 · LF
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · LF
99
Bolts46.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate75.0% · LF
35
Sprint Speed29.6 · LF
96
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7% · rebadged research
13
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
210 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.055 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| Sample | 255 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 424 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.284 to 0.339 | +/- 0.027 |
| ISO | 0.080 | 0.037 to 0.166 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 0.8% | 0.2% to 3.4% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 21.2% | 13.1% to 31.2% | +/- 9.1% |
| K% | 12.7% | 8.9% to 18.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 2.9% to 8.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.290 to 0.366 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
114 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
336 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 6.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |