Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Simpson, Chandler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
6
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.262 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.279 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.269
0.279
0.289
0.298
wOBA
0.317
0.329
0.343
0.356
0.369
ISO
0.049
0.059
0.070
0.081
0.090
K%
7.0%
7.9%
8.8%
9.7%
10.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity80.5
3
Hard-hit%12.9%
1
xBA0.282
15
xSLG0.322
2
xwOBA0.262
13
-47 vs proj
BB%4.3%
11
-19 vs proj
Bat speed60.9
1
K%7.9%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.8 · LF
3
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
70
Outs Above Avg7.0 · LF
97
Range Runs6.9 · LF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs6.4 · LF
99
Bolts102.0 · LF
100
SB Success Rate75.7% · LF
36
Sprint Speed29.5 · LF
95
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5% · rebadged research
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.052 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 554 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 424 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.284 to 0.339 | +/- 0.027 |
| ISO | 0.080 | 0.037 to 0.166 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 0.8% | 0.2% to 3.4% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 21.2% | 13.1% to 31.2% | +/- 9.1% |
| K% | 12.7% | 8.9% to 18.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 2.9% to 8.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.289 to 0.366 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
114 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
336 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 6.0% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |