Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
None
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 20
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.270 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.230
0.257
0.286
0.316
0.342
wOBA
0.315
0.335
0.356
0.378
0.397
ISO
0.089
0.110
0.134
0.158
0.180
K%
18.7%
22.3%
26.4%
30.4%
34.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
31
Barrel%5.4%
55
+21 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
86
Exit velocity87.1
34
Hard-hit%36.4%
35
K%27.5%
24
xBA0.337
63
xSLG0.554
63
xwOBA0.303
42
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength93.5 · SS
90
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · SS
9
Range Runs-2.9 · SS
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.8 · SS
99
Bolts35.0 · SS
97
SB Success Rate90.0% · SS
82
Sprint Speed29.9 · SS
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.249 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386 · validated
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
| Sample | 222 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.120 to 0.330 | +/- 0.105 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.047 to 0.219 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 5.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.0% | 9.6% to 40.4% | +/- 15.4% |
| K% | 26.8% | 8.8% to 38.6% | +/- 14.9% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 0.9% to 9.6% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.167 to 0.359 | +/- 0.096 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |