Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Kemp, Otto
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.206 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.274 |
| Observed weight | 18% |
xwOBA
0.238
0.255
0.274
0.293
0.311
wOBA
0.315
0.358
0.406
0.453
0.496
ISO
0.096
0.124
0.156
0.188
0.217
K%
23.1%
25.4%
27.9%
30.5%
32.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
70
Regression applied
Range Runs-2.8 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.7% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
47
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
61
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
29 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 311 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.250 to 0.332 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.083 to 0.228 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 2.9% to 7.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.0% | 32.4% to 48.9% | +/- 8.2% |
| K% | 27.7% | 20.3% to 31.4% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 2.7% to 8.9% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.248 to 0.368 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
76 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.155 |
| K% | 15.3% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
146 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.146 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |