Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Marsee, Jakob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.301
0.315
0.329
0.342
wOBA
0.268
0.282
0.297
0.313
0.327
ISO
0.097
0.110
0.125
0.140
0.153
K%
19.3%
20.5%
21.8%
23.1%
24.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
13
-35 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
18
Hard-hit%33.5%
26
-20 vs proj
xBA0.299
25
xSLG0.426
21
xwOBA0.303
45
BB%12.5%
87
+50 vs proj
Bat speed67.3
22
K%21.8%
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · CF
13
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
65
Outs Above Avg5.0 · CF
96
Range Runs4.1 · CF
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
52
SB Success Rate64.7% · CF
18
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
65
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
14
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
176 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| Sample | 400 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 320 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.259 to 0.368 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.107 to 0.250 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.6% to 7.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.0% | 28.1% to 47.7% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 19.7% | 14.8% to 25.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.4% to 11.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.273 to 0.353 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
82 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 11.1% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.181 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |