Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Meidroth, Chase
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CWS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.293
0.308
0.323
0.336
wOBA
0.345
0.363
0.383
0.403
0.421
ISO
0.102
0.116
0.131
0.146
0.160
K%
16.0%
17.2%
18.7%
20.1%
21.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.8%
63
+20 vs proj
Barrel%4.2%
38
+23 vs proj
Bat speed64.4
5
Exit velocity87.3
36
Hard-hit%40.2%
50
K%21.1%
56
-31 vs proj
xBA0.322
49
xSLG0.468
36
xwOBA0.301
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
39
Arm Strength81.3 · 2B
17
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
71
Range Runs0.5 · 2B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 2B
53
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
42
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.5% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.078 |
| Sample | 265 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 464 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.265 to 0.353 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.090 | 0.059 to 0.168 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 2.1% | 0.7% to 4.7% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.4% | 29.4% to 45.0% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 14.6% | 12.7% to 21.7% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 5.7% to 11.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.261 to 0.342 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
372 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.208 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |