Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026

Alvarez Jr., Nacho

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.286 xwOBA
Range
0.202 to 0.335
Live Δ
--
Team LAA Archetype Balanced regular Age 23 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Insufficient sample

Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.

Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

142 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Player 805373 · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2025-07-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -2.02025-07-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -4.02025-07-12 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -19.02025-07-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.3 / LA 50.02025-07-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -21.02025-07-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 3.02025-07-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 63.0 / LA 28.02025-07-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -25.02025-07-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -30.02025-07-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 22.02025-07-19 · field out · SI · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 86.02025-07-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 3.02025-07-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 36.02025-07-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 75.6 / LA 62.02025-07-21 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 34.02025-07-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 10.02025-07-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 5.02025-07-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 86.2 / LA 74.02025-07-23 · field out · CU · popup · EV 59.3 / LA 44.02025-07-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 30.02025-07-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 79.0 / LA 19.02025-08-04 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 66.5 / LA 37.02025-08-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -34.02025-08-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 36.02025-08-05 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -55.02025-08-06 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 34.02025-08-08 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 81.8 / LA 43.02025-08-08 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 22.02025-08-10 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 66.2 / LA 25.02025-08-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 82.8 / LA 23.02025-08-12 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 16.02025-08-12 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 19.02025-08-12 · field out · SL · popup · EV 74.1 / LA 57.02025-08-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 10.02025-08-14 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 36.02025-08-14 · field out · SL · popup · EV 77.9 / LA 79.02025-08-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 38.02025-08-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 76.9 / LA 50.02025-08-15 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 84.1 / LA 25.02025-08-16 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 15.02025-08-16 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 43.02025-08-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 19.02025-08-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.5 / LA 63.02025-08-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 32.02025-08-17 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 3.02025-08-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 0.02025-08-17 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -9.02025-08-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 56.2 / LA 3.02025-08-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.1 / LA 17.02025-08-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 16.02025-08-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.0 / LA 5.02025-08-19 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -33.02025-08-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 79.8 / LA 22.02025-08-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 2.02025-08-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -4.02025-08-20 · single · FC · popup · EV 67.3 / LA 36.02025-08-20 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.8 / LA 71.02025-08-22 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA -19.02025-08-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 32.02025-08-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 4.02025-08-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 17.02025-08-23 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -9.02025-08-23 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.3 / LA 66.02025-08-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 22.02025-08-25 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 14.02025-08-25 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 32.02025-08-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.1 / LA -31.02025-08-26 · field out · FA · fly_ball · EV 73.2 / LA 49.02025-08-27 · field out · FA · line_drive · EV 84.0 / LA 26.02025-08-27 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -1.02025-08-27 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 38.02025-08-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 18.02025-08-28 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 74.2 / LA 12.02025-08-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 14.02025-08-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA -56.02025-08-29 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 70.0 / LA 42.02025-08-29 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA 3.02025-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -5.02025-08-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA -5.02025-08-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 12.02025-08-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 81.5 / LA 69.02025-08-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 51.0 / LA 17.02025-08-31 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 33.7 / LA 2.02025-09-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 26.02025-09-01 · sac bunt · SL · ground_ball · EV 36.7 / LA -39.02025-09-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA -8.02025-09-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -12.02025-09-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -15.02025-09-02 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 46.7 / LA -54.02025-09-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 56.02025-09-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 22.02025-09-05 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -3.02025-09-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 20.02025-09-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -51.02025-09-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -20.02025-09-06 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 2.02025-09-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 33.02025-09-07 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 67.4 / LA 37.02025-09-08 · field out · FC · popup · EV 84.4 / LA 77.02025-09-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 41.02025-09-08 · field out · FS · popup · EV 77.0 / LA 58.02025-09-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -10.02025-09-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 6.02025-09-09 · field out · ST · popup · EV 54.9 / LA 38.02025-09-10 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 14.02025-09-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 43.02025-09-12 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.4 / LA -37.02025-09-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -3.02025-09-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 3.02025-09-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 60.0 / LA 28.02025-09-13 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 10.02025-09-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 9.02025-09-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 28.02025-09-14 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA 6.02025-09-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 31.02025-09-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -3.02025-09-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 6.02025-09-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 3.02025-09-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 87.9 / LA 12.02025-09-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 11.02025-09-19 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 58.1 / LA -66.02025-09-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA -26.02025-09-19 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 10.02025-09-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 14.02025-09-20 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 28.02025-09-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 37.02025-09-20 · field out · CH · popup · EV 78.1 / LA 73.02025-09-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 13.02025-09-22 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 39.02025-09-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 4.02025-09-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -13.02025-09-23 · field out · SL · popup · EV 71.4 / LA 59.02025-09-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -12.02025-09-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.0 / LA 74.02025-09-24 · field out · CU · popup · EV 71.4 / LA 70.02025-09-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 21.02025-09-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 44.02025-09-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 35.02025-09-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 51.02025-09-27 · field out · ST · popup · EV 70.8 / LA 58.02025-09-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 23.02025-09-28 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 84.3 / LA 17.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

No zone aggregate is available.

No zone heatmap

No zone aggregate is available for this profile.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances308----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2860.202 to 0.335+/- 0.066
ISO0.1250.052 to 0.207+/- 0.078
Barrel%2.7%0.2% to 5.0%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%32.1%21.4% to 42.6%+/- 10.6%
K%21.8%17.6% to 29.9%+/- 6.1%
BB%5.7%2.8% to 8.5%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.3090.222 to 0.357+/- 0.068
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

66 career PA

xwOBA0.137
K%12.4%
BB%3.3%
Barrel0.5%
vs RHP

186 career PA

xwOBA0.134
K%12.2%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.5%