Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Wilson, Jacob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.275 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.285
0.299
0.313
0.325
wOBA
0.301
0.323
0.346
0.370
0.392
ISO
0.100
0.115
0.132
0.148
0.163
K%
7.6%
8.8%
10.0%
11.3%
12.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%2.7%
3
Barrel%1.6%
9
Bat speed61.9
2
Exit velocity84.3
10
Hard-hit%32.7%
22
K%11.0%
97
xBA0.305
33
xSLG0.387
12
xwOBA0.275
20
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
51
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
84
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
96
Range Runs3.7 · SS
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · SS
54
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
Sprint Speed27.1 · SS
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.9% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
63
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
19
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
28
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
156 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 182 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 480 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.297 to 0.362 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.148 | 0.121 to 0.227 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 1.0% to 4.5% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.1% | 25.5% to 35.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 7.6% | 7.0% to 14.5% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 5.7% | 4.5% to 9.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.293 to 0.343 | +/- 0.025 |
vs LHP
148 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
498 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 5.3% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |