Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team DET
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.248 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.362 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.293
0.311
0.330
0.347
wOBA
0.352
0.370
0.390
0.410
0.427
ISO
0.101
0.119
0.139
0.159
0.177
K%
11.5%
14.4%
17.6%
20.8%
23.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.8%
92
+51 vs proj
Barrel%6.9%
74
+24 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
Exit velocity87.9
42
Hard-hit%36.2%
33
K%13.8%
90
+50 vs proj
xBA0.318
43
xSLG0.533
58
xwOBA0.362
85
+42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
75
Arm Strength82.9 · SS
27
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-0.8 · SS
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · SS
100
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.5% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions74.4% · rebadged research
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
30
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.058 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.086 |
| Sample | 275 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.149 to 0.279 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.082 to 0.240 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 0.7% to 7.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.9% | 15.1% to 43.2% | +/- 14.0% |
| K% | 23.4% | 7.7% to 34.1% | +/- 13.2% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 2.0% to 10.5% | +/- 4.2% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.186 to 0.353 | +/- 0.084 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |