Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team SEA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 21
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
19
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.270 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.239 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.257 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.200
0.227
0.257
0.286
0.313
wOBA
0.271
0.293
0.316
0.340
0.361
ISO
0.107
0.133
0.161
0.190
0.216
K%
21.5%
24.9%
28.8%
32.7%
36.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34
Exit velocity85.1
19
Hard-hit%30.3%
16
-18 vs proj
xBA0.272
10
xSLG0.451
28
xwOBA0.239
5
-42 vs proj
BB%8.6%
50
Bat speed70.5
63
K%33.1%
6
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
47
Arm Strength83.7 · SS
30
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
18
Range Runs-2.4 · SS
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
40
SB Success Rate66.7% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions69.3% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
41 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.065 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| Sample | 175 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.142 to 0.333 | +/- 0.095 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.024 to 0.209 | +/- 0.092 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.7% | 13.9% to 41.5% | +/- 13.8% |
| K% | 25.9% | 9.8% to 35.2% | +/- 12.7% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 1.4% to 10.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.133 to 0.353 | +/- 0.110 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |