Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Keaschall, Luke
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.338 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.279 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.295
0.307
0.318
0.328
wOBA
0.314
0.332
0.353
0.374
0.392
ISO
0.123
0.136
0.151
0.166
0.179
K%
12.9%
14.2%
15.7%
17.2%
18.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.8%
38
Barrel%2.9%
22
-17 vs proj
Bat speed66.3
15
Exit velocity84.9
14
Hard-hit%31.1%
17
K%14.3%
88
xBA0.268
10
xSLG0.388
13
xwOBA0.279
23
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.2 · 2B
30
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Range Runs-0.9 · 2B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · 2B
96
SB Success Rate81.8% · 2B
54
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331 · validated
93
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
177 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.028 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 244 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 304 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.301 to 0.344 | +/- 0.021 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.140 to 0.244 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 2.4% to 7.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.3% | 27.7% to 41.0% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 14.7% | 12.1% to 21.9% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.0% to 11.6% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.281 to 0.348 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
66 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.150 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
141 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.158 |
| K% | 6.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |