Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Waldschmidt, Ryan
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
48
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.263 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.234
0.258
0.285
0.312
0.336
wOBA
0.312
0.330
0.350
0.370
0.388
ISO
0.074
0.095
0.118
0.142
0.163
K%
19.6%
22.7%
26.2%
29.7%
32.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
33
Exit velocity86.2
31
Hard-hit%31.5%
21
-16 vs proj
xBA0.364
90
xSLG0.549
65
xwOBA0.304
49
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed70.0
55
K%27.8%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.5 · CF
92
Arm Strength90.5 · CF
24
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs2.4 · CF
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
45
Bolts4.0 · CF
42
SB Success Rate77.8% · CF
41
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
89
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.5% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.0% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions68.4% · rebadged research
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
66
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
101 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 259 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.118 to 0.320 | +/- 0.101 |
| ISO | 0.129 | 0.021 to 0.212 | +/- 0.095 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 0.2% to 5.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.8% | 12.5% to 38.2% | +/- 12.8% |
| K% | 25.6% | 8.7% to 36.5% | +/- 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 1.3% to 8.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.178 to 0.364 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |