Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Yates, Kirby

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.1% K%
Range
21.4% to 36.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 39 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal2 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight27%
ERA
1.77 2.71 3.76 4.80 5.75
FIP
2.27 2.91 3.62 4.33 4.97
K%
25.0% 27.7% 30.8% 33.8% 36.5%
BB%
6.1% 7.7% 9.5% 11.3% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.97
91
ERA3.00
76
BB%7.9%
63 +34 vs proj
K%32.6%
96 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.279
83 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
46 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo90.7
6
Hard-hit allowed51.0%
0
Whiff%31.1%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 65%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

11 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Yates, Kirby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-07-07: 0.2712026-07-08: 0.2712026-07-09: 0.2712026-07-10: 0.2712026-07-11: 0.2732026-07-12: 0.2792026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2792026-07-15: 0.2792026-07-16: 0.2792026-07-17: 0.279 2026-07-07 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Yates, Kirby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yates, Kirby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 65.0%Split-Finger: 32.9%Sweeper: 2.0% FF65% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 65%FS 33%ST 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yates, Kirby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 65% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 90.7 mphFF91 mphSplit-Finger: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.5 mphFS84 mphSweeper: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 75.1 mphST75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 96.1% 123 99 limited sample
SL 3.9% 5 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Split-Finger 42%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.01
K% Δ+0.055
Sample21.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.8----
Batters Faced157----
K%27.1%21.4% to 36.5%+/- 7.5%
BB%10.5%6.4% to 15.1%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%27.9%23.0% to 35.1%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.260.61 to 2.41+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.3050.238 to 0.389+/- 0.075
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.7% to 15.2%+/- 5.2%
ERA4.011.70 to 6.81+/- 2.56
FIP4.092.00 to 5.46+/- 1.73
WHIP1.2540.929 to 1.673+/- 0.372
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

793 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%27.4%
BB%12.1%
Barrel11.9%
vs RHH

997 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%29.2%
BB%9.0%
Barrel9.8%