Cruz, Fernando
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.87 |
| ERA current pace | 1.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.27 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 66.5% | 131 | 100 | limited sample |
| SL | 26.9% | 53 | 106 | limited sample |
| SI | 6.6% | 13 | 90 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.62 |
| K% Δ | -0.040 |
| Sample | 25.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 39.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 170 | -- | -- |
| K% | 34.2% | 28.4% to 43.4% | +/- 7.5% |
| BB% | 11.4% | 7.4% to 16.1% | +/- 4.4% |
| Whiff% | 35.0% | 31.1% to 42.1% | +/- 5.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.04 | 0.34 to 1.92 | +/- 0.79 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.275 | 0.214 to 0.371 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 4.0% to 13.5% | +/- 4.7% |
| ERA | 3.58 | 1.82 to 6.52 | +/- 2.35 |
| FIP | 3.21 | 1.64 to 6.60 | +/- 2.48 |
| WHIP | 1.203 | 0.915 to 1.677 | +/- 0.381 |
380 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.283 |
| K% | 32.6% |
| BB% | 12.8% |
| Barrel | 9.9% |
501 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 35.6% |
| BB% | 10.3% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |