Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Kelly, Merrill

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.1% to 27.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
15
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
15
Arsenal7 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace5.35
ERA rolling p505.04
Observed weight73%
ERA
4.11 4.55 5.04 5.53 5.98
FIP
4.76 5.08 5.43 5.78 6.10
K%
14.9% 15.8% 16.7% 17.6% 18.5%
BB%
8.2% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
14
ERA5.35
19
BB%10.2%
35 -33 vs proj
K%14.9%
6 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.391
2 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.0%
5 -29 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
16
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
16
Whiff%19.7%
23
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+99
23
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Curveball Stuff+105
91
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Merrill · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.391 2026-08-20: 0.3972026-08-21: 0.3972026-08-22: 0.3972026-08-23: 0.3972026-08-24: 0.3972026-08-25: 0.3982026-08-26: 0.3982026-08-27: 0.3982026-08-28: 0.3982026-08-29: 0.3982026-08-30: 0.3912026-08-31: 0.391 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Merrill · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Merrill · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 27.7%4-Seam Fastball: 27.4%Cutter: 13.3%Curveball: 11.7%Slider: 10.1%Sinker: 9.7% CH28% · 88 mphprimary pitch CH 28%FF 27%FC 13%CU 12%SL 10%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Merrill · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 28% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphCutter: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.5 mphCU82 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphSinker: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 90.3 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 28.4% 427 102 qualified
FB 25.6% 385 99 qualified
FC 14.0% 211 99 qualified
SL 11.4% 171 98 limited sample
CB 11.2% 169 105 limited sample
SI 9.3% 140 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.293 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.97
K% Δ-0.061
Sample142.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings149.6----
Batters Faced622----
K%21.0%17.1% to 27.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.6%5.7% to 9.7%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%20.5%18.1% to 26.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.550.80 to 2.23+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3290.285 to 0.347+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 13.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.382.84 to 5.53+/- 1.34
FIP4.523.42 to 5.32+/- 0.95
WHIP1.2691.011 to 1.457+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2166 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%19.6%
BB%8.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

2297 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%22.5%
BB%6.2%
Barrel9.8%