Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Kimbrel, Craig

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
21.4% to 36.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal4 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.82
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.19 3.07 4.05 5.03 5.91
FIP
2.32 3.12 4.01 4.90 5.70
K%
21.1% 23.5% 26.1% 28.8% 31.1%
BB%
7.2% 8.6% 10.3% 11.9% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
42
ERA4.82
29
BB%9.4%
41 +18 vs proj
K%22.7%
51 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
38
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +67 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
66
Whiff%24.1%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+102
45
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Slider Stuff+102
52
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 68%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kimbrel, Craig · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.327 2026-07-06: 0.3322026-07-07: 0.3322026-07-08: 0.3322026-07-09: 0.3322026-07-10: 0.3322026-07-11: 0.3282026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.3272026-07-17: 0.327 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kimbrel, Craig · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 35%35%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 68.5%Sweeper: 15.6%Knuckle Curve: 9.9%Sinker: 3.1%Changeup: 2.1%Cutter: 0.8% FF68% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 68%ST 16%KC 10%SI 3%CH 2%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 68% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.4 mphST85 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.7 mphKC84 mphSinker: 3% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 73.0% 230 102 qualified
SL 15.9% 50 102 limited sample
CB 10.2% 32 98 limited sample
SI 0.6% 2 96 limited sample
CH 0.3% 1 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 64%, Knuckle Curve 19%, Sweeper 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.21
K% Δ-0.040
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced149----
K%26.6%21.4% to 36.0%+/- 7.3%
BB%11.2%7.0% to 15.9%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%24.2%20.6% to 34.6%+/- 7.0%
HR/91.220.28 to 2.06+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.3200.236 to 0.385+/- 0.074
Barrel% Allowed9.1%4.5% to 15.1%+/- 5.3%
ERA3.611.81 to 6.84+/- 2.51
FIP3.952.08 to 6.65+/- 2.28
WHIP1.2740.965 to 1.748+/- 0.391
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1101 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%27.2%
BB%13.1%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

1250 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%27.3%
BB%9.7%
Barrel10.7%