Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Kimbrel, Craig

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.7% K%
Range
21.4% to 36.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal4 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace3.95
ERA rolling p503.79
Observed weight43%
ERA
1.98 2.84 3.79 4.74 5.59
FIP
2.26 3.03 3.89 4.75 5.52
K%
21.0% 23.1% 25.4% 27.8% 29.9%
BB%
7.8% 9.2% 10.7% 12.1% 13.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
68
ERA3.95
53
BB%10.5%
32
K%22.1%
50 -31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
57 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
76
Whiff%22.6%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Slider Stuff+100
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kimbrel, Craig · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.307 2026-08-25: 0.3172026-08-26: 0.3172026-08-27: 0.3172026-08-28: 0.3172026-08-29: 0.3172026-08-30: 0.3132026-08-31: 0.3132026-09-01: 0.3132026-09-02: 0.3132026-09-03: 0.3082026-09-04: 0.3072026-09-05: 0.307 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kimbrel, Craig · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 39%39%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 66.0%Sweeper: 13.9%Knuckle Curve: 10.1%Sinker: 6.4%Changeup: 3.1%Cutter: 0.6% FF66% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 66%ST 14%KC 10%SI 6%CH 3%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 66% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.4 mphST85 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 83.9 mphKC84 mphSinker: 6% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 70.5% 289 101 qualified
SL 14.1% 58 100 limited sample
CB 11.2% 46 100 limited sample
SI 2.2% 9 101 limited sample
CH 2.0% 8 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 64%, Knuckle Curve 19%, Sweeper 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.32
K% Δ-0.046
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.8----
Batters Faced150----
K%26.7%21.4% to 36.0%+/- 7.3%
BB%11.2%7.0% to 15.9%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%24.2%20.6% to 34.6%+/- 7.0%
HR/91.180.27 to 2.00+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3220.238 to 0.387+/- 0.075
Barrel% Allowed9.1%4.5% to 15.1%+/- 5.3%
ERA3.631.83 to 6.88+/- 2.53
FIP3.952.08 to 6.65+/- 2.28
WHIP1.3060.989 to 1.792+/- 0.401
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1101 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%27.2%
BB%13.1%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

1250 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%27.3%
BB%9.7%
Barrel10.7%