Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Pomeranz, Drew

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
20.7% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
14
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
21
Arsenal3 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.70
ERA current pace5.53
ERA rolling p504.37
Observed weight37%
ERA
3.22 3.76 4.37 4.97 5.51
FIP
4.40 4.66 4.94 5.23 5.49
K%
17.5% 19.3% 21.2% 23.2% 25.0%
BB%
6.9% 7.9% 9.1% 10.3% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
7
ERA5.53
16
BB%11.6%
20 -46 vs proj
K%13.8%
4 -56 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
23 -38 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.0%
31
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
56
Whiff%18.6%
15 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Curveball Stuff+101
37
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 73%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pomeranz, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.342 2026-07-07: 0.3252026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3322026-07-11: 0.3322026-07-12: 0.3322026-07-13: 0.3422026-07-14: 0.3422026-07-15: 0.3422026-07-16: 0.3422026-07-17: 0.3422026-07-18: 0.342 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pomeranz, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 38%38%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pomeranz, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 72.7%Knuckle Curve: 27.3% FF73% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 73%KC 27% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pomeranz, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 73% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphKnuckle Curve: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 84.3 mphKC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 70.8% 206 105 qualified
CB 29.2% 85 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.232 vs 0.253 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 77%, Knuckle Curve 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.02
K% Δ-0.103
Sample29.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.2----
Batters Faced256----
K%24.1%20.7% to 31.7%+/- 5.5%
BB%7.6%4.9% to 10.7%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%21.4%19.1% to 27.7%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.270.69 to 1.72+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3040.264 to 0.327+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.5% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.511.57 to 4.70+/- 1.56
FIP3.682.81 to 4.30+/- 0.75
WHIP1.1840.818 to 1.470+/- 0.326
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

850 career BF

xwOBA0.232
K%26.8%
BB%5.8%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

2262 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%23.0%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.5%