Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 47%, 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 8%.
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026
Sale, Chris
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team ATL
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 37
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.36 |
| ERA current pace | 1.89 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.53 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
ERA
1.64
2.06
2.53
3.00
3.42
FIP
2.59
2.78
2.99
3.21
3.40
K%
25.3%
26.8%
28.4%
30.1%
31.5%
BB%
4.5%
5.2%
5.9%
6.6%
7.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
88
Barrel allowed7.1%
61
Fastball velo95.3
68
Hard-hit allowed31.8%
87
K%28.0%
83
Whiff%27.8%
81
xwOBA allowed0.284
76
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
79
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
40%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 40.7% | 383 | 103 | qualified |
| FB | 39.4% | 371 | 106 | qualified |
| CH | 11.9% | 112 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 8.1% | 76 | 111 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.36 |
| K% Δ | +0.006 |
| Sample | 78.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 74.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 308 | -- | -- |
| K% | 27.4% | 23.5% to 35.1% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 4.2% to 8.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 25.8% | 23.8% to 31.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.73 to 1.70 | +/- 0.49 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.290 | 0.260 to 0.306 | +/- 0.023 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 5.0% to 9.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| ERA | 3.25 | 2.05 to 4.55 | +/- 1.25 |
| FIP | 3.18 | 2.15 to 3.28 | +/- 0.56 |
| WHIP | 1.071 | 0.904 to 1.339 | +/- 0.217 |
vs LHH
973 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 28.3% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHH
4999 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 27.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |