Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Pérez, Martín

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 22.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.05
ERA rolling p503.49
Observed weight68%
ERA
2.17 2.80 3.49 4.18 4.80
FIP
3.50 3.89 4.33 4.77 5.16
K%
15.4% 16.4% 17.5% 18.6% 19.6%
BB%
7.7% 8.4% 9.1% 9.8% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
67
ERA3.05
80
BB%9.8%
41 -17 vs proj
K%17.8%
18
xwOBA allowed0.327
34 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +54 vs proj
Fastball velo89.4
3
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
56
Whiff%20.1%
27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Cutter Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+99
21
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Curveball Stuff+104
72
Fastball Stuff+92
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Martín · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.327 2026-08-25: 0.3242026-08-26: 0.3232026-08-27: 0.3232026-08-28: 0.3242026-08-29: 0.3242026-08-30: 0.3272026-08-31: 0.3272026-09-01: 0.3272026-09-02: 0.3272026-09-03: 0.3272026-09-04: 0.3272026-09-05: 0.327 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Martín · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.0%Changeup: 30.8%Cutter: 21.7%Curveball: 7.6%4-Seam Fastball: 4.8% SI35% · 89 mphprimary pitch SI 35%CH 31%FC 22%CU 8%FF 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.3 mphSI89 mphChangeup: 31% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 81.8 mphCH82 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 85.2 mphFC85 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 76.9 mphCU77 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 90.0 mphFF90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.2% 465 97 qualified
CH 31.7% 445 98 qualified
FC 21.5% 301 100 qualified
CB 8.7% 122 104 limited sample
FB 4.9% 69 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.323 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Changeup 29%, Cutter 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.35
K% Δ+0.012
Sample124.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.8----
Batters Faced310----
K%16.6%13.3% to 22.6%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.2%15.1% to 22.6%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.82 to 2.01+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3490.291 to 0.373+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.8%7.0% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.402.41 to 5.90+/- 1.75
FIP4.573.27 to 5.48+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3761.044 to 1.646+/- 0.301
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1303 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%18.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

5111 career BF

xwOBA0.323
K%16.2%
BB%8.2%
Barrel9.7%