Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Pérez, Martín

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 22.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.54
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.65 3.24 3.90 4.56 5.16
FIP
3.69 4.07 4.49 4.91 5.28
K%
15.1% 16.2% 17.5% 18.8% 19.9%
BB%
7.0% 7.8% 8.6% 9.4% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
66
ERA3.54
61
BB%9.4%
41 -17 vs proj
K%17.9%
18
xwOBA allowed0.330
32 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
65 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo89.3
3
Hard-hit allowed36.1%
67
Whiff%19.9%
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+99
26
Cutter Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Curveball Stuff+103
74
Fastball Stuff+90
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Martín · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-07-07: 0.3302026-07-08: 0.3302026-07-09: 0.3302026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3302026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.3302026-07-17: 0.3302026-07-18: 0.330 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Martín · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 32.8%Changeup: 30.3%Cutter: 23.2%Curveball: 8.2%4-Seam Fastball: 5.5% SI33% · 89 mphprimary pitch SI 33%CH 30%FC 23%CU 8%FF 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.2 mphSI89 mphChangeup: 30% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 82.1 mphCH82 mphCutter: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 85.3 mphFC85 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 77.1 mphCU77 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 90.0 mphFF90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 31.6% 307 99 qualified
SI 30.5% 296 97 qualified
FC 23.3% 226 100 qualified
CB 9.2% 89 103 limited sample
FB 5.5% 53 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.323 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Changeup 29%, Cutter 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.86
K% Δ+0.013
Sample84.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.8----
Batters Faced310----
K%16.6%13.3% to 22.6%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.2%15.1% to 22.6%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.82 to 2.01+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3490.291 to 0.373+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.8%7.0% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.402.41 to 5.90+/- 1.75
FIP4.573.27 to 5.48+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3761.044 to 1.646+/- 0.301
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1303 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%18.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

5111 career BF

xwOBA0.323
K%16.2%
BB%8.2%
Barrel9.7%