Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Pérez, Martín

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 22.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.60
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.36 2.95 3.60 4.25 4.83
FIP
3.57 3.94 4.35 4.76 5.13
K%
15.1% 16.5% 18.0% 19.5% 20.9%
BB%
6.2% 7.0% 8.0% 8.9% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
54
Barrel allowed7.6%
51 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo90.0
5
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
39
K%19.2%
26
Whiff%18.5%
16
xwOBA allowed0.327
40 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Martín · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3182026-05-19: 0.3182026-05-21: 0.3102026-05-23: 0.3102026-05-24: 0.3102026-05-25: 0.3172026-05-26: 0.3172026-05-28: 0.3172026-05-29: 0.3172026-05-30: 0.3172026-05-31: 0.3172026-06-01: 0.327 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Martín · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 32.1%Sinker: 29.7%Cutter: 21.1%Curveball: 10.2%4-Seam Fastball: 6.9% MIX CH 32%SI 30%FC 21%CU 10%FF 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot CH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.6CHSI: HB 0.0, IVB 2.1SIFC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.2FCCU: HB 0.2, IVB 4.1CUFF: HB -0.7, IVB 1.5FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 32.7% 235 99 qualified
SI 29.1% 209 97 qualified
FC 20.6% 148 102 limited sample
CB 10.8% 78 104 limited sample
FB 6.8% 49 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.323 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Changeup 29%, Cutter 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.70
K% Δ+0.026
Sample55.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.9----
Batters Faced306----
K%16.6%13.3% to 22.6%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.2%15.1% to 22.6%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.82 to 2.01+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3490.291 to 0.373+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.8%7.0% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.402.41 to 5.90+/- 1.75
FIP4.573.27 to 5.48+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3761.044 to 1.646+/- 0.301
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1303 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%18.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

5111 career BF

xwOBA0.323
K%16.2%
BB%8.2%
Barrel9.7%