Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Armstrong, Shawn

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
19.0% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal5 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.70
ERA current pace4.58
ERA rolling p504.08
Observed weight43%
ERA
3.02 3.52 4.08 4.63 5.14
FIP
3.19 3.36 3.56 3.75 3.92
K%
19.4% 21.1% 23.0% 24.9% 26.6%
BB%
7.1% 8.1% 9.2% 10.3% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
67
ERA4.58
35
BB%11.5%
22 -43 vs proj
K%23.1%
58
xwOBA allowed0.301
67 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
60 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
85
Whiff%19.8%
25
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Cutter Stuff+104
74
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Sinker Stuff+92
7
Slider Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Armstrong, Shawn · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-10-04: 0.3152026-10-05: 0.3152026-10-06: 0.3102026-10-07: 0.3102026-10-08: 0.3072026-10-09: 0.3072026-10-10: 0.3072026-10-11: 0.3072026-10-12: 0.3072026-10-13: 0.3072026-10-14: 0.3012026-10-15: 0.301 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Armstrong, Shawn · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Armstrong, Shawn · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.0%Sweeper: 29.8%Cutter: 23.0%Sinker: 17.2% FF30% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 30%ST 30%FC 23%SI 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Armstrong, Shawn · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.5 mphST84 mphCutter: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSinker: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.6% 112 100 limited sample
SL 30.2% 107 97 limited sample
FC 21.2% 75 104 limited sample
SI 16.9% 60 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.316 vs 0.270 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Cutter 24%, Sinker 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ+0.001
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.9----
Batters Faced282----
K%23.0%19.0% to 30.1%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.8%5.2% to 10.9%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.8%17.9% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.130.57 to 1.73+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3150.257 to 0.351+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.3% to 11.9%+/- 3.3%
ERA3.932.55 to 5.52+/- 1.48
FIP3.582.62 to 3.65+/- 0.52
WHIP1.2140.939 to 1.404+/- 0.233
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

724 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%22.3%
BB%8.5%
Barrel10.7%
vs RHH

1139 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%23.6%
BB%6.8%
Barrel7.5%