Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026
Eovaldi, Nathan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.44 |
| ERA current pace | 3.65 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.56 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
2.52
3.01
3.56
4.10
4.59
FIP
3.46
3.73
4.03
4.33
4.59
K%
19.5%
20.9%
22.4%
23.9%
25.3%
BB%
4.2%
4.9%
5.5%
6.2%
6.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.7%
89
Barrel allowed8.1%
44
Fastball velo94.2
48
Hard-hit allowed40.7%
42
K%22.4%
52
Whiff%28.0%
83
+36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
43
-18 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
38%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 34.8% | 194 | 102 | limited sample |
| CB | 32.5% | 181 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 18.1% | 101 | 109 | limited sample |
| SI | 13.3% | 74 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 1.3% | 7 | 92 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.06 |
| K% Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 72.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 143.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 572 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.4% | 18.1% to 28.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 4.2% to 8.0% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 22.7% | 20.1% to 27.8% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.20 | 0.86 to 1.87 | +/- 0.51 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.273 to 0.324 | +/- 0.026 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 6.2% to 11.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 3.59 | 2.02 to 4.94 | +/- 1.46 |
| FIP | 3.70 | 3.01 to 4.61 | +/- 0.80 |
| WHIP | 1.086 | 0.854 to 1.387 | +/- 0.266 |
vs LHH
2648 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 9.0% |
vs RHH
3004 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |