Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Eovaldi, Nathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced starter Age 36 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
70
ERA4.21
45
BB%5.8%
91
K%24.0%
63
xwOBA allowed0.316
46
Barrel allowed8.4%
35
Fastball velo94.2
45
Hard-hit allowed41.6%
29
Whiff%27.9%
85
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+100
19
Cutter Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eovaldi, Nathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-08-25: 0.3162026-08-26: 0.3162026-08-27: 0.3162026-08-28: 0.3162026-08-29: 0.3162026-08-30: 0.3162026-08-31: 0.3162026-09-01: 0.3162026-09-02: 0.3162026-09-03: 0.3162026-09-04: 0.3162026-09-05: 0.316 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eovaldi, Nathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 36.5%Curveball: 22.4%Cutter: 19.2%4-Seam Fastball: 13.8%Sinker: 7.2%Slider: 0.9% FS37% · 88 mphprimary pitch FS 37%CU 22%FC 19%FF 14%SI 7%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.5 mphFS88 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.4 mphCU76 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSinker: 7% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 33.8% 253 103 qualified
CB 33.6% 251 100 qualified
FB 19.5% 146 106 limited sample
SI 11.8% 88 104 limited sample
SL 1.3% 10 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample135.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.8----
Batters Faced574----
K%21.4%18.1% to 28.4%+/- 5.1%
BB%5.9%4.2% to 8.0%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.7%20.1% to 27.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.200.86 to 1.87+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3030.273 to 0.324+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.2% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.592.02 to 4.94+/- 1.46
FIP3.703.01 to 4.61+/- 0.80
WHIP1.0860.854 to 1.387+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2648 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%21.2%
BB%5.6%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

3004 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%23.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.1%