Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Gray, Sonny

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
20.3% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace2.79
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.13 2.61 3.14 3.67 4.15
FIP
2.86 3.22 3.62 4.02 4.37
K%
20.9% 21.8% 22.9% 23.9% 24.9%
BB%
5.4% 5.9% 6.4% 7.0% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
72
ERA2.79
84
BB%6.5%
84
K%22.3%
52
xwOBA allowed0.298
68 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
66 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
13
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
53
Whiff%21.4%
38 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Curveball Stuff+102
37
Cutter Stuff+104
75
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gray, Sonny · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.298 2026-08-22: 0.2942026-08-23: 0.2942026-08-24: 0.2942026-08-25: 0.2952026-08-26: 0.2952026-08-27: 0.2982026-08-28: 0.2982026-08-29: 0.2982026-08-30: 0.2982026-08-31: 0.2982026-09-01: 0.2982026-09-02: 0.298 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gray, Sonny · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gray, Sonny · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 21.6%Sweeper: 19.9%Cutter: 19.1%4-Seam Fastball: 17.4%Curveball: 16.6%Changeup: 5.4% SI22% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 22%ST 20%FC 19%FF 17%CU 17%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gray, Sonny · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCutter: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.7 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 65″ drop, 74.1 mphCS74 mphSlider: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 21.0% 256 104 qualified
SL 18.8% 229 103 qualified
FB 18.5% 226 105 qualified
SI 18.2% 222 102 qualified
CB 18.0% 220 102 qualified
CH 5.5% 67 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sweeper 19%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.24
K% Δ-0.001
Sample150.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.2----
Batters Faced612----
K%22.5%20.3% to 30.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%6.1%4.5% to 8.2%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.4%20.8% to 29.7%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.470.93 to 2.08+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3330.285 to 0.357+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.032.85 to 5.77+/- 1.46
FIP3.982.74 to 4.90+/- 1.08
WHIP1.2851.064 to 1.514+/- 0.225
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3364 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%24.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

3624 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%24.1%
BB%5.1%
Barrel9.9%