Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Suárez, Albert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
13.3% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal5 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.93
ERA rolling p504.01
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.93 3.44 4.01 4.58 5.09
FIP
3.84 4.16 4.51 4.86 5.18
K%
14.5% 16.0% 17.6% 19.2% 20.7%
BB%
6.3% 7.1% 7.9% 8.8% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
60
ERA3.93
54
BB%8.3%
57
K%17.1%
14
xwOBA allowed0.326
35
Barrel allowed8.6%
33
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed43.3%
19
Whiff%20.1%
27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Changeup Stuff+111
98
Curveball Stuff+102
37
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suárez, Albert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.326 2026-08-25: 0.3242026-08-26: 0.3242026-08-27: 0.3242026-08-28: 0.3242026-08-29: 0.3242026-08-30: 0.3242026-08-31: 0.3242026-09-01: 0.3242026-09-02: 0.3232026-09-03: 0.3232026-09-04: 0.3262026-09-05: 0.326 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suárez, Albert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suárez, Albert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.6%Cutter: 21.4%Changeup: 15.8%Curveball: 8.9%Slurve: 0.3% FF54% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 54%FC 21%CH 16%CU 9%SV 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suárez, Albert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphCutter: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 85.6 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.9 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 77.8 mphCU78 mphSlurve: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.4 mphSV81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.0% 214 99 qualified
FC 19.2% 76 95 limited sample
CH 17.7% 70 111 limited sample
CB 8.8% 35 102 limited sample
SL 0.3% 1 73 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Cutter 21%, Changeup 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.60
K% Δ-0.005
Sample58.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.6----
Batters Faced291----
K%17.4%13.3% to 24.3%+/- 5.5%
BB%8.0%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.3%16.9% to 26.3%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.260.81 to 1.84+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3250.285 to 0.360+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.0% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
ERA4.532.79 to 5.85+/- 1.53
FIP4.523.60 to 5.49+/- 0.94
WHIP1.3971.134 to 1.689+/- 0.278
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

551 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%15.4%
BB%8.4%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

625 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%17.4%
BB%5.9%
Barrel6.4%