Chapman, Aroldis
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.48 |
| ERA current pace | 0.51 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.69 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 42.7% | 109 | 111 | limited sample |
| FB | 37.6% | 96 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 19.6% | 50 | 99 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.75 |
| K% Δ | -0.001 |
| Sample | 21.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 164 | -- | -- |
| K% | 34.2% | 27.4% to 43.2% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 10.9% | 5.7% to 14.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| Whiff% | 30.5% | 26.3% to 37.6% | +/- 5.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.01 | 0.37 to 1.70 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.281 | 0.192 to 0.336 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 3.3% to 12.6% | +/- 4.6% |
| ERA | 3.26 | 0.90 to 5.20 | +/- 2.15 |
| FIP | 2.85 | 1.48 to 4.19 | +/- 1.35 |
| WHIP | 1.191 | 0.820 to 1.548 | +/- 0.364 |
657 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 33.2% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
1940 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 34.3% |
| BB% | 10.1% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |