Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Chapman, Aroldis

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
34.2% K%
Range
27.4% to 43.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace0.51
ERA rolling p502.69
Observed weight27%
ERA
1.11 1.86 2.69 3.51 4.26
FIP
1.72 2.22 2.77 3.33 3.83
K%
28.4% 31.3% 34.5% 37.6% 40.5%
BB%
6.8% 8.5% 10.3% 12.2% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.2%
30
Barrel allowed12.5%
6 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
91
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
24
K%34.1%
97
Whiff%31.7%
93
xwOBA allowed0.273
81
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Chapman, Aroldis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.2812026-05-24: 0.2812026-05-25: 0.2812026-05-26: 0.2812026-05-28: 0.2812026-05-29: 0.2812026-05-30: 0.2812026-05-31: 0.2812026-06-01: 0.273 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Chapman, Aroldis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chapman, Aroldis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.6%4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Slider: 19.0%Split-Finger: 10.3% MIX SI 36%FF 35%SL 19%FS 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chapman, Aroldis · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.4, IVB 1.0SIFF: HB -0.0, IVB 0.9FFSL: HB 0.2, IVB 2.8SLFS: HB -0.4, IVB 2.6FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.7% 109 111 limited sample
FB 37.6% 96 104 limited sample
SL 19.6% 50 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 33%, Slider 16%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.75
K% Δ-0.001
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.5----
Batters Faced164----
K%34.2%27.4% to 43.2%+/- 7.9%
BB%10.9%5.7% to 14.8%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%30.5%26.3% to 37.6%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.010.37 to 1.70+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2810.192 to 0.336+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.3% to 12.6%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.260.90 to 5.20+/- 2.15
FIP2.851.48 to 4.19+/- 1.35
WHIP1.1910.820 to 1.548+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

657 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%33.2%
BB%9.3%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

1940 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%34.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel7.3%