Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Raley, Brooks

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace2.20
ERA rolling p503.09
Observed weight46%
ERA
1.50 2.26 3.09 3.93 4.69
FIP
1.62 2.46 3.39 4.32 5.15
K%
18.7% 20.8% 23.1% 25.5% 27.6%
BB%
5.6% 6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
84
ERA2.20
93
BB%7.8%
66
K%23.8%
62
xwOBA allowed0.289
76 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77
Fastball velo90.2
4
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
96
Whiff%22.4%
47 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Slider Stuff+105
78
Changeup Stuff+97
17
Cutter Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Sinker Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Raley, Brooks · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.289 2026-08-25: 0.2892026-08-26: 0.2892026-08-27: 0.2902026-08-28: 0.2902026-08-29: 0.2902026-08-30: 0.2902026-08-31: 0.2902026-09-01: 0.2892026-09-02: 0.2892026-09-03: 0.2892026-09-04: 0.2892026-09-05: 0.289 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Raley, Brooks · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Raley, Brooks · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 37.7%Cutter: 28.6%Sinker: 21.1%Changeup: 12.6% ST38% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 38%FC 29%SI 21%CH 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Raley, Brooks · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 38% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 80.8 mphST81 mphCutter: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.7 mphFC87 mphSinker: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.2 mphSI90 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.9% 213 105 qualified
SI 22.6% 107 98 limited sample
FC 20.9% 99 101 limited sample
CH 11.6% 55 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.223 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 42%, Sinker 24%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.45
K% Δ+0.011
Sample49.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.5----
Batters Faced131----
K%22.8%15.9% to 31.1%+/- 7.6%
BB%8.6%4.8% to 12.5%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%20.2%15.3% to 27.7%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.060.00 to 1.44+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3070.229 to 0.372+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.0%0.6% to 9.1%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.620.92 to 5.42+/- 2.25
FIP2.971.67 to 6.65+/- 2.49
WHIP1.1800.764 to 1.616+/- 0.426
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

382 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%23.8%
BB%6.7%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHH

587 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%21.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel3.2%