Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Raley, Brooks

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace1.27
ERA rolling p503.02
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.35 2.14 3.02 3.91 4.70
FIP
1.55 2.45 3.45 4.44 5.34
K%
18.1% 20.8% 23.7% 26.7% 29.3%
BB%
5.6% 7.0% 8.6% 10.1% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.8%
35 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
47 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo89.9
4
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
87
K%26.5%
78 +25 vs proj
Whiff%23.7%
56 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+102
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Raley, Brooks · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-23: 0.2962026-05-24: 0.2962026-05-25: 0.3002026-05-26: 0.3002026-05-28: 0.3042026-05-29: 0.3042026-05-30: 0.3042026-05-31: 0.3002026-06-01: 0.3002026-06-02: 0.306 2026-05-23 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Raley, Brooks · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Raley, Brooks · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 44.5%Sinker: 23.4%Cutter: 19.0%Changeup: 13.1% MIX ST 44%SI 23%FC 19%CH 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Raley, Brooks · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB 0.6, IVB 3.1STSI: HB 0.0, IVB 2.4SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FCCH: HB -1.2, IVB 3.3CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.0% 157 107 limited sample
SI 23.5% 82 96 limited sample
FC 19.2% 67 100 limited sample
CH 12.3% 43 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.223 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 42%, Sinker 24%, Cutter 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.26
K% Δ+0.037
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.5----
Batters Faced131----
K%22.8%15.9% to 31.1%+/- 7.6%
BB%8.6%4.8% to 12.5%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%20.2%15.3% to 27.7%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.000.00 to 1.36+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3000.223 to 0.363+/- 0.070
Barrel% Allowed6.0%0.6% to 9.1%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.530.90 to 5.29+/- 2.19
FIP2.971.67 to 6.65+/- 2.49
WHIP1.1670.756 to 1.598+/- 0.421
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

382 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%23.8%
BB%6.7%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHH

587 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%21.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel3.2%