Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 52%, Sinker 36%, 4-Seam Fastball 11%.
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026
Kittredge, Andrew
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.36 |
| ERA current pace | 3.27 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.32 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
ERA
2.15
2.71
3.32
3.94
4.49
FIP
3.06
3.40
3.78
4.16
4.50
K%
18.2%
20.1%
22.1%
24.1%
25.9%
BB%
4.3%
5.1%
6.0%
6.9%
7.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
33
ERA3.27
74
BB%6.1%
89
K%18.8%
27
-45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.310
53
-22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72
+29 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
56
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
51
Whiff%22.1%
44
-26 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Sinker Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+105
75
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
49%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 49.5% | 197 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 37.9% | 151 | 106 | limited sample |
| FB | 12.6% | 50 | 100 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.42 |
| K% Δ | -0.065 |
| Sample | 43.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 267 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.3% | 19.4% to 32.1% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 4.6% to 9.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Whiff% | 25.4% | 20.8% to 31.5% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.30 | 0.94 to 2.19 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.290 | 0.247 to 0.341 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 4.9% to 11.6% | +/- 3.3% |
| ERA | 3.69 | 2.25 to 5.53 | +/- 1.64 |
| FIP | 3.66 | 2.72 to 4.74 | +/- 1.01 |
| WHIP | 1.109 | 0.948 to 1.423 | +/- 0.238 |
vs LHH
542 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 9.8% |
vs RHH
949 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |