Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Boyd, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace4.05
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.90 3.42 4.00 4.58 5.10
FIP
3.91 4.19 4.51 4.83 5.11
K%
17.4% 18.5% 19.7% 20.9% 21.9%
BB%
5.7% 6.3% 6.9% 7.6% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA4.05
49
BB%7.3%
73
K%18.7%
26 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.2%
13 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
23
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
38
Whiff%20.8%
33
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+108
90
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Curveball Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Boyd, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-08-25: 0.3422026-08-26: 0.3422026-08-27: 0.3412026-08-28: 0.3412026-08-29: 0.3412026-08-30: 0.3412026-08-31: 0.3412026-09-01: 0.3412026-09-02: 0.3372026-09-03: 0.3372026-09-04: 0.3372026-09-05: 0.337 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Boyd, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.4%Changeup: 26.4%Slider: 15.0%Curveball: 13.0%Sinker: 1.2% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 26%SL 15%CU 13%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 78.7 mphCH79 mphSlider: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 73.2 mphCU73 mphSinker: 1% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.9% 404 101 qualified
CH 27.4% 241 108 qualified
SL 12.6% 111 98 limited sample
CB 12.4% 109 103 limited sample
SI 1.7% 15 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.260 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 23%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.16
K% Δ-0.026
Sample104.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.9----
Batters Faced588----
K%21.2%16.8% to 26.2%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.5%4.9% to 8.8%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.2%18.6% to 26.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.280.76 to 1.92+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3170.280 to 0.328+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.082.44 to 5.42+/- 1.49
FIP4.063.23 to 4.86+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3291.066 to 1.482+/- 0.208
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1043 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%20.9%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

3775 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%19.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.4%