Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Law, Derek

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
13.2% to 28.0%
Live Δ
--
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
22
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal3 metrics
22
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.31
ERA current pace6.75
ERA rolling p503.41
Observed weight3%
ERA
1.35 2.33 3.41 4.50 5.48
FIP
2.14 2.90 3.75 4.60 5.36
K%
12.7% 16.1% 19.8% 23.6% 27.0%
BB%
5.3% 7.1% 9.0% 10.9% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+88
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Law, Derek · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 19%19%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 71%71%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Law, Derek · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 36.1%Slider: 30.6%Changeup: 13.9%4-Seam Fastball: 13.9%Curveball: 2.8%Sinker: 2.8% FC36% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 36%SL 31%CH 14%FF 14%CU 3%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Law, Derek · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSlider: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 76.9 mphCU77 mphSinker: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 36.1% 13 101 limited sample
SL 30.6% 11 88 limited sample
CH 13.9% 5 117 limited sample
FB 13.9% 5 94 limited sample
SI 2.8% 1 108 limited sample
CB 2.8% 1 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.8----
Batters Faced170----
K%19.4%13.2% to 28.0%+/- 7.4%
BB%8.9%5.0% to 12.4%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%24.2%21.3% to 33.9%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.270.46 to 1.85+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3300.247 to 0.379+/- 0.066
Barrel% Allowed6.5%1.5% to 9.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.771.58 to 5.81+/- 2.12
FIP4.252.79 to 6.10+/- 1.66
WHIP1.2981.024 to 1.684+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

669 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%18.6%
BB%9.3%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

894 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%17.8%
BB%6.7%
Barrel4.4%