Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Mantiply, Joe

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
14.7% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-19
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal4 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-19
ERA preseason4.50
ERA current pace3.33
ERA rolling p504.11
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.13 3.07 4.11 5.16 6.10
FIP
2.51 3.09 3.73 4.38 4.96
K%
14.8% 17.2% 19.9% 22.6% 25.0%
BB%
4.1% 5.3% 6.7% 8.0% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
66
ERA3.33
75
BB%4.2%
99 +35 vs proj
K%19.3%
31
xwOBA allowed0.352
14 -53 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
6 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo88.2
1
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
53
Whiff%17.0%
8 -46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-19
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Curveball Stuff+101
33
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mantiply, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.352 2026-09-05: 0.3422026-09-06: 0.3422026-09-07: 0.3342026-09-08: 0.3342026-09-09: 0.3342026-09-10: 0.3242026-09-11: 0.3242026-09-12: 0.3242026-09-13: 0.3172026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3462026-09-19: 0.352 2026-09-05 2026-09-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mantiply, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mantiply, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.2%Curveball: 26.1%Changeup: 25.6% SI48% · 88 mphprimary pitch SI 48%CU 26%CH 26% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mantiply, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.2 mphSI88 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.1 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.4 mphCH80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.5% 159 101 limited sample
CB 29.2% 100 101 limited sample
CH 24.3% 83 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.240 vs 0.270 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 37%, Curveball 33%, Changeup 27%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.95
K% Δ-0.005
Sample28.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.7----
Batters Faced150----
K%19.8%14.7% to 29.2%+/- 7.2%
BB%7.9%4.1% to 11.5%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%23.3%18.0% to 31.1%+/- 6.6%
HR/91.080.13 to 1.78+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.3000.247 to 0.331+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.8%2.9% to 11.0%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.282.06 to 7.38+/- 2.66
FIP3.681.98 to 5.26+/- 1.64
WHIP1.2980.998 to 1.676+/- 0.339
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

442 career BF

xwOBA0.240
K%20.4%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

609 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%18.1%
BB%7.1%
Barrel7.0%