Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Rogers, Taylor

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
17.6% to 31.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace3.54
ERA rolling p503.75
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.08 2.87 3.75 4.63 5.42
FIP
2.87 3.38 3.95 4.52 5.04
K%
16.9% 19.2% 21.9% 24.5% 26.8%
BB%
6.5% 7.8% 9.3% 10.8% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
57 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
53
Fastball velo91.4
11
Hard-hit allowed30.0%
93
K%15.7%
11 -43 vs proj
Whiff%14.9%
3 -49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
16 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Taylor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.3512026-05-23: 0.3512026-05-24: 0.3472026-05-25: 0.3502026-05-26: 0.3502026-05-28: 0.3442026-05-29: 0.3442026-05-30: 0.3382026-05-31: 0.3522026-06-01: 0.352 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Taylor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 44.8%Sinker: 35.8%Cutter: 19.3% MIX ST 45%SI 36%FC 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.7STSI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.1SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.1% 160 109 limited sample
SI 37.5% 133 98 limited sample
FC 17.5% 62 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.268 vs 0.303 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 51%, Sinker 49%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.45
K% Δ-0.073
Sample23.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.9----
Batters Faced168----
K%23.0%17.6% to 31.5%+/- 6.9%
BB%10.1%6.8% to 14.5%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.3%18.5% to 30.1%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.320.28 to 2.08+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.3130.251 to 0.380+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.4% to 13.1%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.991.76 to 6.17+/- 2.21
FIP4.422.69 to 5.56+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3641.059 to 1.788+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

850 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%26.4%
BB%10.6%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

1501 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%21.0%
BB%9.6%
Barrel10.3%