Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 6 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Kikuchi, Yusei

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.8% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-06
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace5.65
ERA rolling p504.90
Observed weight49%
ERA
3.94 4.40 4.90 5.41 5.87
FIP
3.45 3.85 4.29 4.73 5.13
K%
19.6% 21.0% 22.6% 24.1% 25.5%
BB%
6.7% 7.5% 8.3% 9.2% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
30
ERA5.65
15
BB%9.4%
45 -23 vs proj
K%21.7%
46
xwOBA allowed0.346
18 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.4%
22
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed44.4%
13
Whiff%21.7%
41 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-06
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+103
54
Cutter Stuff+102
56
Slider Stuff+109
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kikuchi, Yusei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.346 2026-08-26: 0.3552026-08-27: 0.3552026-08-28: 0.3552026-08-29: 0.3552026-08-30: 0.3552026-08-31: 0.3512026-09-01: 0.3512026-09-02: 0.3512026-09-03: 0.3512026-09-04: 0.3512026-09-05: 0.3512026-09-06: 0.346 2026-08-26 2026-09-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kikuchi, Yusei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kikuchi, Yusei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.1%Slider: 23.8%Split-Finger: 18.4%Curveball: 10.4%Cutter: 8.4% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SL 24%FS 18%CU 10%FC 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kikuchi, Yusei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 18% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 86.7 mphFS87 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 78.9 mphCU79 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.5 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.9% 270 104 qualified
SL 27.7% 156 109 limited sample
CB 12.6% 71 103 limited sample
FC 11.9% 67 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.286 vs 0.310 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 36%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.58
K% Δ-0.014
Sample53.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.8----
Batters Faced625----
K%23.1%19.8% to 29.5%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.6%5.6% to 9.9%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%23.8%20.1% to 28.1%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.420.81 to 2.05+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3140.283 to 0.349+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.9% to 12.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.073.02 to 5.76+/- 1.37
FIP4.083.24 to 5.61+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3131.105 to 1.612+/- 0.254
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

930 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%24.5%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

3457 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%22.2%
BB%7.5%
Barrel9.8%