Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Gausman, Kevin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
18.2% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal3 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace4.52
ERA rolling p504.33
Observed weight75%
ERA
3.20 3.73 4.33 4.92 5.46
FIP
2.86 3.30 3.79 4.28 4.72
K%
21.3% 22.3% 23.3% 24.4% 25.4%
BB%
5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
60
ERA4.52
37
BB%6.6%
82
K%23.6%
60
xwOBA allowed0.305
60
Barrel allowed7.3%
51 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
40
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
40
Whiff%24.8%
65 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+107
87
Mithrandir Stuff+105
81
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gausman, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-08-25: 0.3042026-08-26: 0.3042026-08-27: 0.3042026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3052026-08-31: 0.3052026-09-01: 0.3052026-09-02: 0.3052026-09-03: 0.3052026-09-04: 0.3052026-09-05: 0.305 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gausman, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gausman, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.3%Split-Finger: 38.5%Slider: 9.1%Changeup: 1.0% FF51% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 51%FS 39%SL 9%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gausman, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.1 mphFS84 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 87.3% 938 107 qualified
SL 12.4% 133 93 limited sample
CH 0.4% 4 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Split-Finger 38%, Slider 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.68
K% Δ+0.015
Sample166.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings81.0----
Batters Faced334----
K%22.0%18.2% to 28.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.1%5.4% to 9.7%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.4%19.9% to 27.5%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.250.70 to 1.91+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3130.267 to 0.339+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.6% to 13.4%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.842.67 to 5.51+/- 1.42
FIP3.962.97 to 5.34+/- 1.18
WHIP1.2500.971 to 1.445+/- 0.237
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3591 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%20.9%
BB%7.4%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

4052 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%22.8%
BB%6.2%
Barrel10.5%