Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Split-Finger 38%, Slider 9%.
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026
Gausman, Kevin
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.85 |
| ERA current pace | 3.13 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.45 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
ERA
2.41
2.90
3.45
3.99
4.48
FIP
2.66
3.06
3.50
3.95
4.35
K%
19.6%
20.9%
22.5%
24.0%
25.4%
BB%
4.5%
5.1%
5.8%
6.5%
7.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.9%
94
+21 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
42
Fastball velo93.9
43
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
66
K%22.3%
50
Whiff%22.9%
48
xwOBA allowed0.295
67
+23 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
53%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 87.1% | 590 | 107 | qualified |
| SL | 12.9% | 87 | 91 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.80 |
| K% Δ | +0.003 |
| Sample | 74.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 80.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 331 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.0% | 18.2% to 28.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.4% to 9.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 22.4% | 19.9% to 27.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.28 | 0.72 to 1.94 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.320 | 0.273 to 0.346 | +/- 0.037 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 6.6% to 13.4% | +/- 3.4% |
| ERA | 3.93 | 2.73 to 5.63 | +/- 1.45 |
| FIP | 3.96 | 2.97 to 5.34 | +/- 1.18 |
| WHIP | 1.252 | 0.973 to 1.446 | +/- 0.237 |
vs LHH
3591 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.311 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 10.2% |
vs RHH
4052 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 10.5% |