Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Stanek, Ryne

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
19.6% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal4 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.95
ERA current pace4.66
ERA rolling p504.25
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.85 3.51 4.25 4.98 5.64
FIP
3.15 3.67 4.25 4.83 5.35
K%
20.0% 21.9% 24.1% 26.3% 28.3%
BB%
8.3% 9.5% 10.8% 12.0% 13.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA4.66
32
BB%12.4%
15
K%23.5%
58
xwOBA allowed0.312
52
Barrel allowed7.5%
55 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo97.9
94
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
72
Whiff%26.3%
74
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+97
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Stanek, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.312 2026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3172026-07-10: 0.3172026-07-11: 0.3172026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3122026-07-15: 0.3122026-07-16: 0.3122026-07-17: 0.3122026-07-18: 0.312 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Stanek, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Stanek, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.7%Slider: 22.6%Split-Finger: 15.5%Sinker: 10.7%Sweeper: 0.4% FF51% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 51%SL 23%FS 15%SI 11%ST 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Stanek, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.1 mphFF98 mphSlider: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mphSplit-Finger: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.8 mphFS90 mphSinker: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.6 mphST84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 58.8% 245 107 qualified
SL 28.5% 119 97 limited sample
SI 12.7% 53 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Slider 21%, Split-Finger 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.60
K% Δ+0.003
Sample38.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.1----
Batters Faced293----
K%23.3%19.6% to 32.6%+/- 6.5%
BB%10.4%6.8% to 13.7%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%24.9%22.2% to 32.5%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.020.55 to 1.86+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3180.255 to 0.346+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.3% to 12.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.072.39 to 6.27+/- 1.94
FIP4.212.62 to 5.69+/- 1.53
WHIP1.3311.016 to 1.692+/- 0.338
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

889 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%22.4%
BB%12.2%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

1223 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.7%
BB%9.4%
Barrel9.6%