Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Stanek, Ryne

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
19.6% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.95
ERA current pace6.00
ERA rolling p504.60
Observed weight32%
ERA
3.14 3.83 4.60 5.37 6.07
FIP
2.80 3.34 3.95 4.56 5.10
K%
20.3% 22.5% 25.0% 27.5% 29.7%
BB%
8.9% 10.2% 11.7% 13.1% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%16.1%
3 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo98.0
94
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
32
K%25.9%
74 +20 vs proj
Whiff%32.2%
93 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.332
34
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Stanek, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3282026-05-19: 0.3282026-05-21: 0.3292026-05-23: 0.3292026-05-24: 0.3332026-05-25: 0.3332026-05-26: 0.3332026-05-28: 0.3332026-05-29: 0.3332026-05-30: 0.3332026-05-31: 0.3322026-06-01: 0.332 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Stanek, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Stanek, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.8%Slider: 24.1%Split-Finger: 13.5%Sinker: 11.0%Sweeper: 0.6% MIX FF 51%SL 24%FS 13%SI 11%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Stanek, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 0.9FFSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.8SLFS: HB -0.3, IVB 2.5FSSI: HB 1.0, IVB 1.5SIST: HB -1.0, IVB 3.3ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.2% 232 107 qualified
SL 28.6% 112 97 limited sample
SI 12.2% 48 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Slider 21%, Split-Finger 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.94
K% Δ+0.026
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.3----
Batters Faced289----
K%23.3%19.6% to 32.6%+/- 6.5%
BB%10.4%6.8% to 13.7%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%24.9%22.2% to 32.5%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.020.55 to 1.86+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3180.255 to 0.346+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.3% to 12.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.062.38 to 6.27+/- 1.94
FIP4.212.62 to 5.69+/- 1.53
WHIP1.3281.016 to 1.692+/- 0.338
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

889 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%22.4%
BB%12.2%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

1223 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.7%
BB%9.4%
Barrel9.6%