Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 20%, Cutter 16%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Rodriguez, Eduardo
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.44 |
| ERA current pace | 2.31 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.31 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
ERA
2.24
2.75
3.31
3.87
4.37
FIP
3.38
3.70
4.05
4.40
4.71
K%
17.0%
18.2%
19.5%
20.9%
22.1%
BB%
6.8%
7.6%
8.4%
9.2%
10.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
42
-19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
52
Fastball velo91.8
16
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
73
K%18.0%
19
-19 vs proj
Whiff%16.5%
7
-24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.332
35
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
40%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.0% | 416 | 102 | qualified |
| CH | 28.2% | 293 | 105 | qualified |
| FC | 14.2% | 148 | 101 | limited sample |
| CB | 10.8% | 112 | 102 | limited sample |
| SI | 6.7% | 70 | 94 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.22 |
| K% Δ | -0.028 |
| Sample | 66.0 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 140.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 621 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.8% | 16.8% to 25.5% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 6.1% to 10.5% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 20.9% | 17.2% to 25.0% | +/- 3.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 0.83 to 2.16 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.324 | 0.290 to 0.338 | +/- 0.024 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 6.5% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.53 | 3.37 to 6.38 | +/- 1.50 |
| FIP | 4.06 | 3.29 to 5.17 | +/- 0.94 |
| WHIP | 1.419 | 1.200 to 1.721 | +/- 0.260 |
vs LHH
1268 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.296 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
vs RHH
4583 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 9.0% |