Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Rodriguez, Eduardo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace2.61
ERA rolling p503.08
Observed weight74%
ERA
1.90 2.46 3.08 3.70 4.26
FIP
3.21 3.56 3.95 4.34 4.69
K%
16.9% 17.7% 18.7% 19.6% 20.4%
BB%
6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.5% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
70
ERA2.61
87
BB%8.0%
63
K%17.8%
18 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
37
Barrel allowed7.7%
47
Fastball velo92.0
14
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
84
Whiff%18.6%
16 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Changeup Stuff+106
82
Cutter Stuff+104
70
Fastball Stuff+104
60
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Curveball Stuff+102
42
Sinker Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Eduardo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-08-22: 0.3332026-08-23: 0.3332026-08-24: 0.3332026-08-25: 0.3292026-08-26: 0.3292026-08-27: 0.3242026-08-28: 0.3242026-08-29: 0.3242026-08-30: 0.3242026-08-31: 0.3242026-09-01: 0.3242026-09-02: 0.324 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Eduardo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Eduardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.4%Changeup: 26.6%Cutter: 13.1%Curveball: 12.1%Sinker: 8.7%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF39% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 39%CH 27%FC 13%CU 12%SI 9%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Eduardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.5 mphCH85 mphCutter: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mphSinker: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.6 mphSI92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 87.5 mphPO88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.4% 620 104 qualified
CH 27.8% 427 106 qualified
FC 14.1% 217 104 qualified
CB 10.7% 165 102 limited sample
SI 7.0% 107 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 20%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.91
K% Δ-0.030
Sample166.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.0----
Batters Faced620----
K%20.8%16.8% to 25.5%+/- 4.3%
BB%8.1%6.1% to 10.5%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.9%17.2% to 25.1%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.370.83 to 2.16+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3240.290 to 0.338+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.533.37 to 6.38+/- 1.50
FIP4.063.29 to 5.17+/- 0.94
WHIP1.4191.200 to 1.721+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1268 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%20.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

4583 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%18.8%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.0%