Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Peralta, Wandy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.9% K%
Range
14.6% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace2.23
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight46%
ERA
1.80 2.43 3.12 3.82 4.45
FIP
3.03 3.48 3.98 4.49 4.94
K%
14.8% 16.4% 18.2% 20.0% 21.6%
BB%
7.1% 8.2% 9.3% 10.4% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
54
ERA2.23
92
BB%10.1%
32
K%16.4%
12
xwOBA allowed0.311
53
Barrel allowed3.4%
96 +56 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
76
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
84
Whiff%20.6%
31 -28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Changeup Stuff+108
85
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Sinker Stuff+99
28
Slider Stuff+95
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Wandy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.311 2026-07-06: 0.3192026-07-07: 0.3192026-07-08: 0.3192026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3192026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3112026-07-13: 0.3112026-07-14: 0.3112026-07-15: 0.3112026-07-16: 0.3112026-07-17: 0.311 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Wandy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Wandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.1%Changeup: 34.8%Slider: 17.0%4-Seam Fastball: 10.0% SI38% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 38%CH 35%SL 17%FF 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Wandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 38% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.6 mphSL90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.7% 195 99 limited sample
CH 34.8% 185 108 limited sample
SL 17.9% 95 95 limited sample
FB 10.5% 56 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.294 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Changeup 35%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.80
K% Δ-0.025
Sample49.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.9----
Batters Faced286----
K%18.9%14.6% to 26.0%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.3%6.6% to 13.1%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%24.3%20.6% to 29.3%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.170.61 to 1.89+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3100.274 to 0.360+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.4% to 11.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.031.96 to 5.70+/- 1.87
FIP4.273.09 to 5.78+/- 1.34
WHIP1.3751.079 to 1.693+/- 0.307
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

851 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%18.5%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

1239 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%16.7%
BB%10.0%
Barrel8.5%