Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Moll, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 34.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal5 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace4.19
ERA rolling p504.13
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.49 3.26 4.13 4.99 5.77
FIP
2.86 3.29 3.77 4.24 4.67
K%
20.9% 23.1% 25.6% 28.0% 30.2%
BB%
7.6% 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
53
ERA4.19
44
BB%10.6%
28
K%25.0%
68
xwOBA allowed0.316
48 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
78
Fastball velo91.6
11
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
62
Whiff%23.8%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+91
4
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Moll, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-06: 0.3222026-07-07: 0.3222026-07-08: 0.3222026-07-09: 0.3222026-07-10: 0.3222026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3182026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.316 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Moll, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Moll, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 37.0%Sweeper: 35.6%Changeup: 17.2%4-Seam Fastball: 10.2% SI37% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 37%ST 36%CH 17%FF 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Moll, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 37% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.5 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 38.0% 178 103 limited sample
SL 37.0% 173 105 limited sample
CH 15.6% 73 91 limited sample
FB 9.4% 44 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.217 vs 0.264 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 42%, Sinker 24%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.17
K% Δ-0.008
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.1----
Batters Faced148----
K%25.8%18.9% to 34.2%+/- 7.6%
BB%10.0%6.6% to 15.7%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%25.1%18.5% to 31.3%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.190.29 to 1.93+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.2890.210 to 0.330+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.8%2.3% to 9.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.021.98 to 6.59+/- 2.30
FIP3.872.41 to 4.94+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3640.983 to 1.700+/- 0.359
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

379 career BF

xwOBA0.217
K%26.7%
BB%9.0%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHH

451 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%20.7%
BB%11.5%
Barrel5.4%