Moll, Sam
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.08 |
| ERA current pace | 2.55 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.57 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 37.6% | 157 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 37.6% | 157 | 101 | limited sample |
| CH | 15.8% | 66 | 90 | limited sample |
| FB | 9.1% | 38 | 103 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.51 |
| K% Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 28.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 34.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 150 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.8% | 18.9% to 34.2% | +/- 7.6% |
| BB% | 10.1% | 6.6% to 15.7% | +/- 4.6% |
| Whiff% | 25.1% | 18.5% to 31.3% | +/- 6.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.19 | 0.29 to 1.93 | +/- 0.82 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.288 | 0.210 to 0.330 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.8% | 2.3% to 9.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 4.06 | 1.98 to 6.59 | +/- 2.30 |
| FIP | 3.87 | 2.41 to 4.94 | +/- 1.27 |
| WHIP | 1.364 | 0.983 to 1.700 | +/- 0.359 |
379 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.217 |
| K% | 26.7% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
451 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 11.5% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |