Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Moll, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 34.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace2.55
ERA rolling p503.57
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.85 2.66 3.57 4.47 5.28
FIP
2.73 3.17 3.67 4.17 4.61
K%
20.2% 22.8% 25.6% 28.4% 30.9%
BB%
7.0% 8.5% 10.2% 11.9% 13.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
34
Barrel allowed4.4%
87 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
10
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
66
K%24.8%
67
Whiff%25.0%
65
xwOBA allowed0.287
73
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Moll, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3152026-05-19: 0.3152026-05-21: 0.3062026-05-23: 0.2992026-05-24: 0.3082026-05-25: 0.3072026-05-26: 0.2972026-05-28: 0.2872026-05-29: 0.2872026-05-30: 0.2872026-05-31: 0.2872026-06-01: 0.287 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Moll, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Moll, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 36.3%Sinker: 35.8%Changeup: 18.7%4-Seam Fastball: 9.2% MIX ST 36%SI 36%CH 19%FF 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Moll, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.7STSI: HB 0.4, IVB 3.0SICH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.9CHFF: HB -0.3, IVB 2.0FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.6% 157 105 limited sample
SI 37.6% 157 101 limited sample
CH 15.8% 66 90 limited sample
FB 9.1% 38 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.217 vs 0.264 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 42%, Sinker 24%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.51
K% Δ-0.010
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced150----
K%25.8%18.9% to 34.2%+/- 7.6%
BB%10.1%6.6% to 15.7%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%25.1%18.5% to 31.3%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.190.29 to 1.93+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.2880.210 to 0.330+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.8%2.3% to 9.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.061.98 to 6.59+/- 2.30
FIP3.872.41 to 4.94+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3640.983 to 1.700+/- 0.359
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

379 career BF

xwOBA0.217
K%26.7%
BB%9.0%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHH

451 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%20.7%
BB%11.5%
Barrel5.4%