Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Slider 38%, Changeup 11%.
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026
deGrom, Jacob
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team TEX
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 38
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.30 |
| ERA current pace | 3.77 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.54 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
ERA
2.20
2.83
3.54
4.24
4.88
FIP
2.84
3.43
4.09
4.74
5.33
K%
22.9%
24.9%
27.1%
29.2%
31.2%
BB%
3.9%
4.6%
5.3%
6.1%
6.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.0%
94
Barrel allowed11.5%
12
-25 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
89
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
11
K%29.0%
88
+16 vs proj
Whiff%32.5%
94
+26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
51
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+111
98
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
42%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 42.2% | 407 | 113 | qualified |
| SL | 35.7% | 344 | 109 | qualified |
| CH | 14.2% | 137 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 6.4% | 62 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 1.5% | 14 | 111 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.02 |
| K% Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 58.7 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 138.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 547 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.5% | 19.5% to 34.1% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 3.9% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 25.7% | 23.0% to 32.8% | +/- 4.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.41 | 0.94 to 2.22 | +/- 0.64 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.306 | 0.230 to 0.338 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.7% | 4.8% to 12.3% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 3.75 | 1.45 to 5.24 | +/- 1.90 |
| FIP | 4.07 | 2.85 to 6.37 | +/- 1.76 |
| WHIP | 1.031 | 0.747 to 1.395 | +/- 0.324 |
vs LHH
2838 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.259 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 10.4% |
vs RHH
2903 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |