Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

deGrom, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
19.5% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal6 metrics
90
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason3.30
ERA current pace3.77
ERA rolling p503.63
Observed weight70%
ERA
2.18 2.87 3.63 4.39 5.08
FIP
2.05 2.68 3.39 4.10 4.73
K%
25.5% 26.8% 28.2% 29.7% 31.0%
BB%
5.1% 5.7% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
80
ERA3.77
57
BB%6.6%
83
K%29.6%
92 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.291
74
Barrel allowed8.1%
39
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
13
Whiff%31.3%
95 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Fastball Stuff+111
97
Mithrandir Stuff+109
98
Slider Stuff+109
96
Curveball Stuff+106
96
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed deGrom, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.291 2026-08-22: 0.2972026-08-23: 0.2972026-08-24: 0.2972026-08-25: 0.2942026-08-26: 0.2942026-08-27: 0.2972026-08-28: 0.2972026-08-29: 0.2972026-08-30: 0.2972026-08-31: 0.2972026-09-01: 0.2912026-09-02: 0.291 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile deGrom, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal deGrom, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.8%Slider: 36.5%Changeup: 12.9%Curveball: 6.3%Sinker: 2.5% FF42% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 36%CH 13%CU 6%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal deGrom, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSlider: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.3 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.7 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.7 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 645 111 qualified
SL 35.8% 556 109 qualified
CH 15.0% 233 102 qualified
CB 6.0% 94 106 limited sample
SI 1.7% 27 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Slider 38%, Changeup 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.02
K% Δ+0.042
Sample135.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.9----
Batters Faced546----
K%25.5%19.5% to 34.1%+/- 7.3%
BB%6.2%3.9% to 8.4%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.7%23.0% to 32.8%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.410.94 to 2.22+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3060.230 to 0.338+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed8.7%4.8% to 12.3%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.751.45 to 5.24+/- 1.90
FIP4.072.85 to 6.37+/- 1.76
WHIP1.0310.748 to 1.395+/- 0.324
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2838 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%25.6%
BB%5.7%
Barrel10.4%
vs RHH

2903 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%23.1%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.0%