Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Treinen, Blake

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.1% K%
Range
20.7% to 36.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 38 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
76
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace3.52
ERA rolling p503.41
Observed weight32%
ERA
1.85 2.59 3.41 4.24 4.98
FIP
2.81 3.09 3.41 3.72 4.01
K%
20.4% 23.0% 26.0% 29.0% 31.6%
BB%
7.4% 8.8% 10.3% 11.9% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
22
ERA3.52
62
BB%11.4%
20
K%26.3%
75
xwOBA allowed0.348
17 -51 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.2%
3 -65 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed44.1%
17
Whiff%26.5%
75
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+110
99
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+107
89
Slider Stuff+96
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Treinen, Blake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.348 2026-07-06: 0.3482026-07-07: 0.3482026-07-08: 0.3482026-07-09: 0.3482026-07-10: 0.3482026-07-11: 0.3482026-07-12: 0.3482026-07-13: 0.3482026-07-14: 0.3482026-07-15: 0.3482026-07-16: 0.3482026-07-17: 0.348 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Treinen, Blake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Treinen, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 41.7%Sinker: 36.1%4-Seam Fastball: 11.6%Cutter: 10.1%Changeup: 0.5% ST42% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 42%SI 36%FF 12%FC 10%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Treinen, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.8 mphST84 mphSinker: 36% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.6% 131 96 limited sample
SI 36.6% 105 107 limited sample
FB 9.4% 27 112 limited sample
FC 8.4% 24 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 46%, Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.07
K% Δ+0.002
Sample25.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.5----
Batters Faced159----
K%26.1%20.7% to 36.5%+/- 7.9%
BB%10.0%6.0% to 13.8%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%24.7%19.7% to 32.3%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.130.32 to 1.85+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.2950.231 to 0.336+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.8% to 9.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.591.99 to 6.17+/- 2.09
FIP3.612.15 to 3.75+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2941.006 to 1.655+/- 0.325
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1059 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%26.5%
BB%9.9%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

1346 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%25.1%
BB%8.2%
Barrel4.6%