Okert, Steven
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.13 |
| ERA current pace | 3.86 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.04 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 68.9% | 246 | 103 | qualified |
| FB | 29.4% | 105 | 97 | limited sample |
| SI | 1.7% | 6 | 99 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.08 |
| K% Δ | -0.042 |
| Sample | 29.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 270 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.2% | 20.9% to 32.2% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.7% to 11.8% | +/- 3.1% |
| Whiff% | 26.2% | 22.1% to 31.7% | +/- 4.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.35 | 0.75 to 1.89 | +/- 0.57 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.297 | 0.260 to 0.338 | +/- 0.039 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.8% to 11.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 3.78 | 2.89 to 5.90 | +/- 1.50 |
| FIP | 3.78 | 3.01 to 5.34 | +/- 1.17 |
| WHIP | 1.184 | 0.987 to 1.470 | +/- 0.242 |
542 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 26.4% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
772 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 23.6% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |