Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Okert, Steven

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
20.9% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.13
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.92 3.45 4.04 4.63 5.17
FIP
2.84 3.26 3.72 4.18 4.59
K%
20.7% 22.7% 24.8% 27.0% 29.0%
BB%
6.2% 7.4% 8.6% 9.9% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.2%
32 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
48
Fastball velo90.8
6
Hard-hit allowed25.0%
98
K%22.0%
48 -28 vs proj
Whiff%25.8%
70
xwOBA allowed0.305
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Okert, Steven · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3142026-05-21: 0.3022026-05-23: 0.3172026-05-24: 0.3072026-05-25: 0.3072026-05-26: 0.3012026-05-28: 0.3012026-05-29: 0.3012026-05-30: 0.3002026-05-31: 0.3052026-06-01: 0.3052026-06-02: 0.305 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Okert, Steven · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Okert, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 66.1%4-Seam Fastball: 30.3%Sinker: 3.6% MIX SL 66%FF 30%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Okert, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB 0.1, IVB 2.9SLFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.5FFSI: HB 1.2, IVB 1.9SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 68.9% 246 103 qualified
FB 29.4% 105 97 limited sample
SI 1.7% 6 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.252 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 58%, 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Cutter 1%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.08
K% Δ-0.042
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.3----
Batters Faced270----
K%26.2%20.9% to 32.2%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.2%5.7% to 11.8%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%26.2%22.1% to 31.7%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.350.75 to 1.89+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.2970.260 to 0.338+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.8% to 11.2%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.782.89 to 5.90+/- 1.50
FIP3.783.01 to 5.34+/- 1.17
WHIP1.1840.987 to 1.470+/- 0.242
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

542 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%26.4%
BB%6.8%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHH

772 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%23.6%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.7%