Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Junis, Jakob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.1% K%
Range
14.3% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced reliever Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace2.72
ERA rolling p503.27
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.04 2.62 3.27 3.92 4.50
FIP
2.78 3.22 3.71 4.19 4.63
K%
16.2% 18.1% 20.1% 22.1% 24.0%
BB%
4.2% 5.1% 6.1% 7.1% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA2.72
86
BB%6.5%
84
K%19.5%
32
xwOBA allowed0.309
55 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.4%
95 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
17
Hard-hit allowed34.5%
79
Whiff%18.6%
17 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Slider Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+108
94
Fastball Stuff+97
20
Mithrandir Stuff+104
74
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Junis, Jakob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-08-25: 0.3062026-08-26: 0.3062026-08-27: 0.3052026-08-28: 0.3052026-08-29: 0.3052026-08-30: 0.3062026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.3082026-09-02: 0.3082026-09-03: 0.3082026-09-04: 0.3092026-09-05: 0.309 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Junis, Jakob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junis, Jakob · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 44.0%4-Seam Fastball: 19.4%Changeup: 18.7%Sinker: 17.9% ST44% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 44%FF 19%CH 19%SI 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junis, Jakob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSinker: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.1% 214 107 qualified
CH 19.0% 92 108 limited sample
SI 18.6% 90 100 limited sample
FB 18.4% 89 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 44%, Sinker 28%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.37
K% Δ+0.004
Sample48.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.9----
Batters Faced174----
K%19.1%14.3% to 27.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%6.1%3.5% to 9.7%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%20.7%18.1% to 26.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.230.62 to 2.05+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3270.263 to 0.355+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.6% to 12.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.072.25 to 5.71+/- 1.73
FIP4.083.08 to 5.69+/- 1.31
WHIP1.2861.054 to 1.608+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1789 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%17.9%
BB%5.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1933 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%20.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel8.1%