Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Bassitt, Chris

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal7 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace4.97
ERA rolling p504.68
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.74 4.18 4.68 5.17 5.61
FIP
3.46 3.81 4.21 4.61 4.97
K%
15.1% 16.2% 17.5% 18.8% 19.9%
BB%
6.5% 7.2% 7.9% 8.6% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
17
ERA4.97
27
BB%7.9%
63
K%15.3%
6 -31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.345
19
Barrel allowed4.8%
88 +58 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
14
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
72
Whiff%17.7%
11
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Cutter Stuff+96
9
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+93
7
Slider Stuff+102
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bassitt, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.345 2026-08-25: 0.3442026-08-26: 0.3442026-08-27: 0.3402026-08-28: 0.3402026-08-29: 0.3402026-08-30: 0.3402026-08-31: 0.3452026-09-01: 0.3452026-09-02: 0.3452026-09-03: 0.3452026-09-04: 0.3452026-09-05: 0.345 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bassitt, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bassitt, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 37.2%Curveball: 21.7%Cutter: 20.2%4-Seam Fastball: 6.9%Sweeper: 5.9%Changeup: 5.6% SI37% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 37%CU 22%FC 20%FF 7%ST 6%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bassitt, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 71.1 mphCU71 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 73.0 mphST73 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.1 mphCH85 mphSlider: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.2 mphSL80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.2% 407 104 qualified
CB 23.9% 269 102 qualified
FC 19.8% 223 96 qualified
SL 7.6% 85 102 limited sample
FB 6.7% 75 93 limited sample
CH 5.8% 65 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.331 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Cutter 17%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.84
K% Δ-0.052
Sample84.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings79.4----
Batters Faced345----
K%20.5%16.9% to 27.2%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.2%6.0% to 10.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%18.0% to 25.1%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.350.84 to 1.92+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3290.284 to 0.350+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.0% to 11.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.133.11 to 5.69+/- 1.29
FIP4.403.07 to 5.15+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3731.113 to 1.602+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2777 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%19.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

2801 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%21.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.0%