Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Fulmer, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
17.4% to 31.0%
Live Δ
--
Team NYY Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
42
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal6 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.37
ERA current pace0.00
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight11%
ERA
2.21 3.01 3.90 4.79 5.59
FIP
2.36 2.98 3.67 4.35 4.97
K%
17.7% 20.6% 23.9% 27.1% 30.1%
BB%
5.9% 7.6% 9.5% 11.3% 13.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+95
14
Curveball Stuff+105
92
Cutter Stuff+113
100
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+86
1
Slider Stuff+86
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fulmer, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 62%62%Hard hit allowed: 14%14% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fulmer, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 33.3%Curveball: 19.2%Sinker: 17.5%Sweeper: 11.7%Changeup: 10.8%4-Seam Fastball: 7.5% FC33% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 33%CU 19%SI 18%ST 12%CH 11%FF 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fulmer, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mphSinker: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 32.5% 27 113 limited sample
CB 16.9% 14 105 limited sample
SL 16.9% 14 86 limited sample
SI 14.5% 12 86 limited sample
CH 12.0% 10 95 limited sample
FB 7.2% 6 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 43%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Changeup 10%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.9----
Batters Faced158----
K%20.5%17.4% to 31.0%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.9%5.2% to 12.9%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%20.1%17.5% to 29.0%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.400.30 to 2.06+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3130.257 to 0.347+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.4%3.7% to 12.2%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.282.23 to 6.01+/- 1.89
FIP3.842.52 to 5.43+/- 1.45
WHIP1.2490.871 to 1.463+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1422 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%19.6%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1523 career BF

xwOBA0.254
K%20.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel7.1%