Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Nola, Aaron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
18.4% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.42
ERA current pace4.93
ERA rolling p504.79
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.57 4.15 4.79 5.44 6.02
FIP
4.00 4.38 4.80 5.22 5.60
K%
21.6% 22.6% 23.6% 24.7% 25.6%
BB%
6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
29
ERA4.93
29
BB%8.2%
59 -22 vs proj
K%24.4%
66 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
51 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
23
Fastball velo92.0
14
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
31
Whiff%25.8%
73 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Cutter Stuff+96
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nola, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-08-25: 0.3152026-08-26: 0.3152026-08-27: 0.3152026-08-28: 0.3152026-08-29: 0.3152026-08-30: 0.3152026-08-31: 0.3152026-09-01: 0.3122026-09-02: 0.3122026-09-03: 0.3122026-09-04: 0.3122026-09-05: 0.312 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nola, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckle Curve: 32.9%4-Seam Fastball: 23.9%Sinker: 18.4%Changeup: 16.3%Cutter: 7.7%Slider: 0.8% KC33% · 78 mphprimary pitch KC 33%FF 24%SI 18%CH 16%FC 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Knuckle Curve: 33% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.3 mphKC78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSinker: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCutter: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 33.5% 553 103 qualified
FB 25.0% 412 102 qualified
SI 18.5% 305 103 qualified
CH 14.6% 241 103 qualified
FC 7.9% 131 96 limited sample
SL 0.5% 8 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.280 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Knuckle Curve 29%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.68
K% Δ+0.039
Sample149.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.0----
Batters Faced608----
K%20.5%18.4% to 27.7%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.7%4.8% to 8.6%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%21.2%18.7% to 26.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.511.05 to 2.26+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3250.274 to 0.332+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.253.06 to 6.19+/- 1.57
FIP4.403.04 to 5.09+/- 1.02
WHIP1.2371.046 to 1.543+/- 0.248
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3591 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%21.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

3891 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%23.8%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.9%