Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Nola, Aaron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
18.4% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.42
ERA current pace5.75
ERA rolling p505.30
Observed weight66%
ERA
4.14 4.69 5.30 5.92 6.47
FIP
4.05 4.41 4.81 5.21 5.57
K%
20.7% 21.7% 22.9% 24.1% 25.2%
BB%
6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA5.75
14
BB%8.0%
60 -19 vs proj
K%23.7%
59 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
47
Barrel allowed10.0%
21 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
15
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
41
Whiff%25.5%
70 +35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Cutter Stuff+94
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nola, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-07: 0.3192026-07-08: 0.3192026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3192026-07-11: 0.3192026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3182026-07-14: 0.3182026-07-15: 0.3182026-07-16: 0.3182026-07-17: 0.3182026-07-18: 0.316 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nola, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckle Curve: 34.0%4-Seam Fastball: 23.6%Sinker: 19.7%Changeup: 14.1%Cutter: 7.6%Slider: 1.1% KC34% · 78 mphprimary pitch KC 34%FF 24%SI 20%CH 14%FC 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Knuckle Curve: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.2 mphKC78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCutter: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.1 mphFC86 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 33.6% 421 103 qualified
FB 25.1% 314 101 qualified
SI 19.6% 246 103 qualified
CH 12.9% 162 103 limited sample
FC 8.1% 101 94 limited sample
SL 0.6% 8 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.280 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Knuckle Curve 29%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.50
K% Δ+0.032
Sample105.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.1----
Batters Faced609----
K%20.5%18.4% to 27.7%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.7%4.8% to 8.6%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%21.2%18.7% to 26.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.511.05 to 2.26+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3250.274 to 0.332+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.253.06 to 6.19+/- 1.57
FIP4.403.04 to 5.09+/- 1.02
WHIP1.2371.046 to 1.543+/- 0.248
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3591 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%21.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

3891 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%23.8%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.9%