Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Snell, Blake

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
28.5% K%
Range
23.2% to 35.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
86
Arsenal5 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.32
ERA current pace2.42
ERA rolling p503.00
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.97 2.46 3.00 3.54 4.03
FIP
2.10 2.43 2.79 3.16 3.48
K%
25.5% 27.7% 30.0% 32.4% 34.5%
BB%
7.9% 9.0% 10.1% 11.3% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
85
ERA2.42
91
BB%10.6%
31
K%32.6%
97
xwOBA allowed0.226
99 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.4%
100 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed13.5%
100
Whiff%32.7%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+105
82
Changeup Stuff+109
96
Curveball Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Snell, Blake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.226 2026-08-25: 0.2362026-08-26: 0.2362026-08-27: 0.2362026-08-28: 0.2362026-08-29: 0.2362026-08-30: 0.2252026-08-31: 0.2252026-09-01: 0.2252026-09-02: 0.2252026-09-03: 0.2252026-09-04: 0.2252026-09-05: 0.226 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Snell, Blake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 44%44%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 62%62%Hard hit allowed: 14%14% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.8%Curveball: 22.8%Changeup: 16.4%Slider: 11.0% FF50% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CU 23%CH 16%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.7 mphCH85 mphSlider: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.9 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.8% 271 107 qualified
CB 22.8% 124 103 limited sample
CH 16.4% 89 109 limited sample
SL 11.0% 60 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 26%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.98
K% Δ+0.041
Sample32.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.6----
Batters Faced302----
K%28.5%23.2% to 35.9%+/- 6.3%
BB%10.1%7.1% to 12.9%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%29.3%27.9% to 36.7%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.130.32 to 1.68+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2880.230 to 0.327+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.4%4.1% to 9.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.401.75 to 4.55+/- 1.40
FIP3.361.90 to 3.78+/- 0.94
WHIP1.1920.924 to 1.506+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1002 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%28.2%
BB%10.8%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

4249 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%27.6%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.8%