Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Springs, Jeffrey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
14.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal5 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace6.37
ERA rolling p505.75
Observed weight71%
ERA
4.46 5.07 5.75 6.43 7.04
FIP
4.85 5.23 5.65 6.06 6.44
K%
16.7% 17.7% 18.9% 20.0% 21.0%
BB%
7.3% 8.0% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
23
ERA6.37
8
BB%9.1%
47 -24 vs proj
K%18.3%
22 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
24
Barrel allowed9.2%
24
Fastball velo91.4
9
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
80
Whiff%20.8%
33 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+103
61
Cutter Stuff+90
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Springs, Jeffrey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-08-23: 0.3402026-08-24: 0.3402026-08-25: 0.3402026-08-26: 0.3402026-08-27: 0.3402026-08-28: 0.3402026-08-29: 0.3402026-08-30: 0.3402026-08-31: 0.3392026-09-01: 0.3392026-09-02: 0.3392026-09-03: 0.339 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Springs, Jeffrey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Springs, Jeffrey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Changeup: 24.1%Slider: 23.2%Sweeper: 6.0%Cutter: 2.8% FF44% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 24%SL 23%ST 6%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Springs, Jeffrey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 79.5 mphCH79 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.1 mphSL84 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 77.2 mphST77 mphCutter: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.9% 657 99 qualified
SL 28.4% 426 103 qualified
CH 24.2% 363 103 qualified
FC 3.5% 52 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Changeup 25%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.61
K% Δ-0.028
Sample128.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.9----
Batters Faced309----
K%21.1%14.8% to 25.6%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.4%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.0%19.3% to 27.9%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.461.00 to 2.27+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3330.271 to 0.353+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.0% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.762.75 to 6.12+/- 1.69
FIP4.523.46 to 5.53+/- 1.03
WHIP1.3711.053 to 1.555+/- 0.251
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

540 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.5%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

1621 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.9%