Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Woodruff, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
21.2% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace3.60
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight36%
ERA
2.66 3.21 3.81 4.42 4.96
FIP
2.97 3.41 3.89 4.36 4.80
K%
20.5% 22.4% 24.5% 26.7% 28.6%
BB%
4.0% 4.9% 5.9% 7.0% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
87
Barrel allowed9.4%
29 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
19
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
83
K%21.2%
41 -30 vs proj
Whiff%21.5%
38
xwOBA allowed0.280
80
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Woodruff, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2802026-05-19: 0.2802026-05-21: 0.2802026-05-23: 0.2802026-05-24: 0.2802026-05-25: 0.2802026-05-26: 0.2802026-05-28: 0.2802026-05-29: 0.2802026-05-30: 0.2802026-05-31: 0.2802026-06-01: 0.280 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Woodruff, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woodruff, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.7%Changeup: 21.0%Sinker: 17.2%Cutter: 13.4%Curveball: 5.5%Sweeper: 1.3% MIX FF 42%CH 21%SI 17%FC 13%CU 5%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woodruff, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.2FFCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.7CHSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.5SIFC: HB -0.1, IVB 1.9FCCU: HB 0.2, IVB 5.0CUST: HB -1.1, IVB 3.4ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.4% 176 106 limited sample
CH 21.0% 87 107 limited sample
SI 18.6% 77 103 limited sample
FC 12.0% 50 104 limited sample
CB 4.8% 20 103 limited sample
SL 1.2% 5 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.01
K% Δ-0.043
Sample32.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.4----
Batters Faced549----
K%25.5%21.2% to 32.7%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.8%3.9% to 9.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%21.9%18.0% to 26.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.280.94 to 2.00+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.2840.206 to 0.303+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.0% to 10.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.611.94 to 5.08+/- 1.57
FIP3.522.38 to 4.87+/- 1.24
WHIP1.1100.694 to 1.415+/- 0.360
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1655 career BF

xwOBA0.201
K%24.4%
BB%5.4%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1626 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%25.0%
BB%4.7%
Barrel7.2%