Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Glasnow, Tyler

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
27.0% K%
Range
23.0% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
91
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal5 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace2.79
ERA rolling p503.08
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.09 2.56 3.08 3.61 4.08
FIP
2.14 2.58 3.07 3.57 4.01
K%
27.7% 29.5% 31.5% 33.4% 35.2%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.83
99
ERA2.79
85
BB%7.0%
77 +28 vs proj
K%34.6%
98 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.243
97 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
50 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
68
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
52
Whiff%30.1%
93 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+106
89
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Sinker Stuff+101
44
Slider Stuff+108
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Glasnow, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.243 2026-08-25: 0.2522026-08-26: 0.2522026-08-27: 0.2462026-08-28: 0.2462026-08-29: 0.2462026-08-30: 0.2462026-08-31: 0.2432026-09-01: 0.2432026-09-02: 0.2432026-09-03: 0.2432026-09-04: 0.2432026-09-05: 0.243 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Glasnow, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Glasnow, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.3%Knuckle Curve: 22.4%Sinker: 21.0%Slider: 17.2%Curveball: 6.1% FF33% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 33%KC 22%SI 21%SL 17%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Glasnow, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 80.4 mphKC80 mphSinker: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphSlider: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.5 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 83.8 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.0% 212 112 qualified
CB 28.7% 196 102 limited sample
SI 24.6% 168 101 limited sample
SL 15.8% 108 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Curveball 23%, Slider 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ+0.076
Sample60.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.6----
Batters Faced297----
K%27.0%23.0% to 35.5%+/- 6.3%
BB%9.0%6.6% to 11.6%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.3%23.3% to 32.0%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.170.68 to 1.94+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.2880.256 to 0.326+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.312.31 to 5.11+/- 1.40
FIP3.382.55 to 5.19+/- 1.32
WHIP1.0990.883 to 1.376+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1674 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%27.9%
BB%9.1%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

1788 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%26.9%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%