Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Fedde, Erick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
12.9% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal6 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace4.16
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight70%
ERA
3.13 3.66 4.24 4.81 5.34
FIP
4.29 4.61 4.97 5.33 5.65
K%
14.7% 15.6% 16.7% 17.7% 18.6%
BB%
6.9% 7.5% 8.1% 8.8% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
35
ERA4.16
47
BB%8.4%
56
K%16.4%
12
xwOBA allowed0.330
31 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.1%
40
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
42
Whiff%17.7%
11
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Cutter Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+95
11
Slider Stuff+105
78
Changeup Stuff+97
19
Fastball Stuff+80
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fedde, Erick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-08-25: 0.3322026-08-26: 0.3322026-08-27: 0.3322026-08-28: 0.3322026-08-29: 0.3322026-08-30: 0.3312026-08-31: 0.3312026-09-01: 0.3312026-09-02: 0.3312026-09-03: 0.3312026-09-04: 0.3312026-09-05: 0.330 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fedde, Erick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fedde, Erick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 37.4%Sinker: 30.5%Cutter: 18.9%Changeup: 11.9%4-Seam Fastball: 1.2% ST37% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 37%SI 30%FC 19%CH 12%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fedde, Erick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphSinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.4% 543 105 qualified
SI 29.0% 421 95 qualified
FC 21.8% 316 102 qualified
CH 10.9% 158 97 limited sample
FB 0.8% 12 80 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.332 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 33%, Cutter 28%, Sweeper 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.33
K% Δ+0.001
Sample129.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.8----
Batters Faced325----
K%16.3%12.9% to 22.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.4%6.2% to 11.1%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.8%14.6% to 22.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.610.77 to 1.94+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3560.294 to 0.371+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.7% to 10.7%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.493.25 to 6.16+/- 1.45
FIP4.743.58 to 5.36+/- 0.89
WHIP1.3981.122 to 1.632+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1734 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%14.2%
BB%9.9%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

1734 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%16.9%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.2%