Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Cutter 21%, Changeup 20%.
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026
Martinez, Nick
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TB
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.31 |
| ERA current pace | 1.51 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.72 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
ERA
1.76
2.21
2.72
3.22
3.68
FIP
3.69
3.96
4.26
4.57
4.84
K%
13.5%
14.6%
15.9%
17.2%
18.3%
BB%
4.3%
4.9%
5.5%
6.2%
6.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.7%
96
Barrel allowed7.0%
62
+17 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
22
Hard-hit allowed33.5%
82
K%13.3%
3
Whiff%15.7%
5
xwOBA allowed0.321
43
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
30%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 29.9% | 250 | 106 | qualified |
| CH | 28.7% | 240 | 99 | qualified |
| FC | 19.4% | 162 | 106 | limited sample |
| FB | 10.9% | 91 | 104 | limited sample |
| CB | 7.9% | 66 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 3.3% | 28 | 104 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.94 |
| K% Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 72.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 75.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 315 | -- | -- |
| K% | 17.0% | 13.8% to 23.2% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.7% to 8.8% | +/- 2.0% |
| Whiff% | 18.9% | 16.5% to 23.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.52 | 0.86 to 1.91 | +/- 0.52 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.329 | 0.279 to 0.344 | +/- 0.032 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 5.5% to 10.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| ERA | 4.45 | 3.22 to 5.91 | +/- 1.35 |
| FIP | 4.59 | 3.44 to 5.06 | +/- 0.81 |
| WHIP | 1.333 | 1.086 to 1.525 | +/- 0.220 |
vs LHH
1605 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |
vs RHH
1927 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |