Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Freeland, Kyle

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
13.0% to 22.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal7 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.91
ERA current pace7.36
ERA rolling p506.47
Observed weight64%
ERA
5.04 5.72 6.47 7.22 7.89
FIP
3.51 4.03 4.61 5.19 5.71
K%
16.0% 17.1% 18.4% 19.6% 20.8%
BB%
3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 6.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
12
ERA7.36
3
BB%4.5%
98
K%19.3%
29 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.359
11
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
24
Whiff%20.6%
30 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Cutter Stuff+106
85
Fastball Stuff+103
51
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Changeup Stuff+107
80
Sinker Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+98
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Freeland, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.359 2026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3652026-07-09: 0.3652026-07-10: 0.3652026-07-11: 0.3652026-07-12: 0.3652026-07-13: 0.3592026-07-14: 0.3592026-07-15: 0.3592026-07-16: 0.3592026-07-17: 0.3592026-07-18: 0.359 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Freeland, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Freeland, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.2%Cutter: 21.1%Knuckle Curve: 20.7%Changeup: 15.2%Sweeper: 12.1%Sinker: 5.7% FF25% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 25%FC 21%KC 21%CH 15%ST 12%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Freeland, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphKnuckle Curve: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.4 mphKC82 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mphSinker: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.9% 288 103 qualified
CB 21.6% 240 100 qualified
FC 19.7% 219 106 qualified
CH 15.8% 175 107 limited sample
SL 13.0% 144 98 limited sample
SI 4.1% 45 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.298 vs 0.336 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Knuckle Curve 25%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.95
K% Δ+0.030
Sample90.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.5----
Batters Faced632----
K%16.3%13.0% to 22.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%6.1%3.7% to 7.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%17.1%15.2% to 23.1%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.740.76 to 2.16+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3590.298 to 0.386+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed9.0%6.3% to 13.0%+/- 3.3%
ERA5.412.97 to 6.86+/- 1.94
FIP4.963.41 to 6.41+/- 1.50
WHIP1.4301.161 to 1.725+/- 0.282
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1245 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%18.1%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

4445 career BF

xwOBA0.336
K%14.9%
BB%5.1%
Barrel10.1%